Hawkeye Poll: Presidential race close in Iowa, likely determined by ability to turn out supporters

University of Iowa ^ | 11/01/2012 | COMMUNICATION AND MARKETING

[SeekAndFind]

With the presidential election less than one week away, it’s still a close race in Iowa, a key swing state. Mitt Romney has a slight edge over Barack Obama among likely voters in the state, according to a University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll released today. The Hawkeye Poll is a teaching, research, and service project of the Department of Political Science in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (CLAS).

Obama has a slight lead in Iowa among all respondents, with 42.7 percent of the vote to 41.0 percent for Romney, with 10.5 percent undecided and 5.8 percent preferring a third party candidate. Romney leads among likely voters, though, with 45.2 percent of the vote compared to 44.4 percent for Obama, with 6 percent undecided and 4.3 percent preferring a third party candidate. The margin of error for the survey of 320 Iowans is 5.6 percent.

“Our results show Romney making advances and perhaps taking the lead in Iowa, and that the race continues to be close and within the margin of error,” says Frederick Boehmke, associate professor of political science in the UI CLAS and faculty adviser of the Hawkeye Poll. “It appears that the final result will be determined by each campaign’s ability to turn out supporters and to capture the votes of those last few undecided voters.”

While both candidates show strong support among their respective bases, Obama has a slight lead among self-described independent voters with 41.9 percent of independents supporting him compared to 40.2 percent who back Romney.

“Iowa remains up for grabs and it's understandable and worthwhile for both candidates to continue to spend time here in the remaining few days of the campaign,” says Tim Hagle, UI associate professor of political science. The race stays tight across different sectors of the electorate as well, with Romney leading among men by 46.3 percent to 43 percent and Obama leading among women 45.9 percent to 44.1 percent.

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[LibLieSlayer]

I posted this on the first thread last night covering this poll... this poll was a class project from an assistant professor of political science to a class he teaches. They created 12 questions and then polled 320 Iowa adults of voting age. This is a class project in a college class... a bogus unscientific pos if there ever were one.

LLS

[snarkytart]

Yes but it’s true that turnout is the key in places like IA and OH.

[Huskrrrr]

Supporters wanted; Dead or Alive.

[newgeezer]

a bogus unscientific pos if there ever were one

Agreed. Then, they top it off by reporting their results down to the nearest 0.1%.

The Marxists occupying the U of I should probably avoid anything involving numbers and stick to squishy stuff like sociology, psychology, etc.

[LibLieSlayer]

Turnout is the key in every election... absolutely.

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

marxists cannot understand economics or numbers because if they did... there would be no marxists.

LLS

[RightSight]

Agreed.

According to TFA, 94%+ (302 out of 320) made it past the likely voter screen. Riiiiiiiiight.

[LibLieSlayer]

Roger that! Rasmussen just released an Iowa poll showing Mitt ahead by 1 point... D+6.

LLS