EXCLUSIVE: Romney campaign memo on Iowa

Washingtom Post ^ | November 1, 2012 | Jennifer Rubin

[GonzoII]

The Romney team has been exuding confidence about Iowa, although public polling has been mixed. Right Turn has obtained from an Iowa Republican a copy of a campaign memo regarding the state of early voting there. As indicated by its reference to numbers as of Oct. 30, it is the most recent assessment from the Romney team’s perspective on the race in the state that launched Barack Obama’s presidential race in 2008:

• DEM lead of more than 44 points (16.91 to 60.99%) on 9/28 collapsed to 12.27 points by 10/30, an improvement of nearly +32 net points on the margin by Republicans.

• Republicans have already turned out 128 percent of our absentee and early voters from four years ago — nine percent more than the Democrats have done.

• Republicans have cut Democrats’ historic advantage in in-person early voting by 75 percent.

• At this time four years ago, Democrats led in-person early voting 70,484 to 41,927. Not only have Republicans turned out 10,000 more early voters than we did at this time in 2008, but more than 10,000 fewer Democrats have voted – a clear sign of their depressed enthusiasm and failure of their ground game to turn their voters out.

• The Obama campaign is panicking, and you can see it in the way they are turning out their most reliable, most likely voters long before Election Day. They are using their highest propensity voters to pad their absentee and early vote numbers. Incredibly, half of Iowa Democrats who have voted in all four of the last four general elections have been made to request absentee ballots or vote early by the Obama campaign.

• The upshot is that Republicans have twice as many reliable, high propensity voters available on Election Day...

[newgeezer]

Wow, it looks like a landslide is coming.

It sure as hell better be. Otherwise, it means We The People failed to receive or heed a very clear warning and it won't be long before liberalism rises again, stronger and eager to inflict more and worse damage than ever before.

[kevkrom]

How about that tool Nate Silver, where will that guy be on election night?

He will stand by his "model" and say that although it predicted an X% chance for an Obama win, this was just clearly a case of things turning out in the (100-X)% side. It was unlikely, but always possible. Shoulders shrug, and off the "tune" the "model" to make another useless wild-ass -- but precise to one decimal place! -- guess in four years.