[RedMominBlueState]

The WaPo graphic the writer is referring to shows the percentages of different categories of voters (white mainline protestants, income $100K+, moderates etc) who voted for Obama in 2008 who are likely to defect in 2012. This would correspond to what I know is happening among my acquaintances. I know people who voted for Obama in 2008 who say they are not voting for him this time, but no one I know who voted for McCain is going to vote for Obama. We need to continue to work as hard as we can to get people to the polls, but I am not going to let the mainstream media discourage me!

[Jyotishi]

90-plus percent of my acquaintances who voted for Obama in ‘08 won’t this year.

[Doctor 2Brains]

for later

[Kahuna]

Funny that this poll shows a 13% swing from ‘08 to ‘12. With one more day left for early voting in Nevada there is almost exactly a 13% swing toward RR when it comes to D vs. R EV’s.

[BubbaBasher]

[rashley]

It makes perfect sense to me that at least 13% of the imbeciles who voted for Obamugabe in 2008 feel snookered. Take 87% of the 54% of the Popular Vote he got in ‘08 and you get 47%.

That assumes the electorate does not change from ‘08. Most seem to think the lack of enthusiasm for him will depress his vote even further, making 47% a real stretch.

[JediJones]

Let’s run the numbers if turnout declines 15%, equally on both sides. This puts the overall turnout between 2000 and 2004.

Obama minus 15%: 59,038,362
McCain minus 15%: 50,944,591

Now take 13% of Obama’s votes and move them to Romney.

Obama: 51,363,375
Romney: 58,619,578

Romney only needs to convert a little under 7% of Obama’s voters to his side to win under that turnout scenario.