[tomkat]

Unless the Erie County GOP is trying to pull a hoax on everyone in broad daylight - one that could readily be debunked if fraudulent - I believe you're quite mistaken.

The staff at Michelle Malkin's website is clearly stating that the Erie Cty GOP posted the results last night of new numbers,

Tonight, the Erie County, Pa., Republican Party is reporting the results of a new statewide poll:

Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released today shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely voters.
Two percent are undecided and 3% are for other candidates.

while also stating that :

Susquehanna is the same Pennsylvania-based polling group that released a poll showing Romney ahead of Obama by 4 points two weeks ago.

Malkin's site goes on to clarify thusly :

Susquehanna has not tweeted any information about its latest poll yet, but its last poll (the one released two weeks ago) had a perfectly reasonable D+6 sample.
Turnout in Pennsylvania was D+7 in 2008, according to exit polls.

I read this : Susquehanna has not tweeted any information about its latest poll yet as saying that the internals have not yet been released,
but one may reasonably assume that their methodology won't have changed.

With so much at stake, do you seriously think two big-name outfits (Malkin & GOP) would risk their credibility and a potential election-altering scandal with a bogus poll ?

I don't.

[tomkat]

Given your signup date & miniscule posting history, I would normally jump right on PA Engineer's skepticism and come out swinging a BIG troll club.

However, your post here strikes me as quite reasonable and sincere, so welcome to FR !

[joltman1974]

Definitely a new poll. I believe it gets realeased tomorrow in the tribune review. Its just being held up for full release in the sunday paper.

[floridacarl]

I think it is just an honest mistake. Some sort of glitch. I don’t think anyone can turn that into a scandal.

How likely is it that two polls, 3 weeks apart, have the exact same number of likely voters in the sample (1,347) and shows the exact same numbers in two races (R 49 - 0 45 / Smith 48 - Casey 46)? That exact match of likely voters is really the giveaway. The chance of all the numbers, including the number of likely voters that made it through the screen, to be identical, would have to be astronomical.