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Posted on 11/04/2012 6:56:26 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
Battleground had Romney up by 5, but if I recall it was a final projection, not a poll.
Both have to be based on data, not sure about the divergence.
You summed it up accurately in one sentence.
Forget the debates, forget the polls.. are there enough people left in the country who want the America of our forefathers or are we going to go the way of England and the rest of Europe did decades ago - socialism.
Ten years ago I would have called it a slam dunk for our forefather’s America, but today there is a very good chance the majority want the government to take care of them from cradle to grave.
If this poll is accurate, then Romney loses because of the fraud. These numbers do not reflect the hundreds of thousands of votes that will be cast by democraps using the bogus registrations on voter rolls all across the country, fraudulent registrations placed there by Acorn and other democrap funded groups. If Romney’s lead is actually 3 points, he might squeak through.
A story yesterday about a democrap women bragging that she had already voted 3 times. The are hundreds of thousands of people just like this bitch who have already voted multiple times or will be on Tuesday. There were will many democrap districts in swing states that will report close to a 100 %, and in some cases maybe even higher, turnout.
It will be interesting to see what America does when it wakes up Wed and realizes the election was stolen. Will the GOP actually do something this time, since the future of the country is at stake? Since so many of the bogus votes are on the rolls as “legit” residents it may be hard to prove. They could check census records and match against names on the rolls in that district, or I’m sure any number of ways to illustrate many votes a fraudulent. They will cry about and that is all.
Probably America has been finished for a long time and we just don’t realize it or believe it could be possible. Tuesday should provide the definite answer.
I don’t buy the Romney vote among R’s is below 90%. I posted this on another thread by it is relevant here also:
My analysis still shows a total blowout and yes the media will use the margin of error to justify their propaganda on behalf of the Obama campaign.
Looking at the raw data over at:http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
The samples of all the national polls include 30,000 voters. This is a huge sample size so the margin of error should be very small.
Looking across the %’s across the 30,000 raw numbers polled we see the following:
Obama leading among dems, 91.15%, 7.62%, Other/Undecided 1.23%
Romney leading among R’s, 94.47%, 4.74%, Other/Undecided .79%
Romney leading among Indies: 47.40%, 38.13%. Other/Undecided 14.16%
So we see the following Romney is leading among crossover voters by 2.88% and he is leading among Independents by 9.57%
I make the following assumptions to simplify. Independents will comprise 30% of the total vote. Among the 14.16% of undecided independents 6% will go to third party candidates.
The rest of the independents will break towards the challenger by a 70/30% ratio (a little under the historical norm.
So let look at turnout models to see where we are at:
If the dems have a 37-33% advantage over the R’s, Romney wins 50.5% to 47.7% (the other 1.8% to third parties).
If the dems has a 2% turnout advantage (36-34%) Romney wins 51.4% to 46.8%
If the turnout is even (IOW the dems doing better than 2010)Romney wins 52.3% to 45.9%.
If the turnout model is +1% R as per Gallup Romney wins 52.7% to 45.5%.
The R’s are polling much higher in the voter enthusiasm/intensity measurement than dems this year.
This election will be a blowout and the bad assumptions in the polling is also impacting the calculations of the Senate races, get out and vote, the rest will take care of itself.
BTW if the turnout model matches 2008 (D 39, R 32, I 31): Romney wins the popular vote 50.3-49.9. This is the cliffhanger the pundits are ‘selling’ in the media to hype the ratings.
Does anyone believe that the turnout for the Dems will match 2008?
I don’t and neither should you.
Obama’s closing message is attacking the Tea Party and he’s playing defense in blue states? Tells me Obama is trying to turn out his base in order to avoid a down ticket disaster.
Barone said that every pollster that he knows is scared to death that America cannot be polled correctly today. Some fear for their future. Americans are not bound to land lines and so they poll cell phones also but then some of that data is not available. Out of all of the clls that pollsters make... only 9% of the calls that they make are even answered. Of those that do answer, less than seven percent will take the time to answer any polling questions.
He said the polling is missing something that is going on in every place he looks. He said he must rely on all that he has learned over the years and what he knows to be true. He then said he has been in most precincts and counties in the US that set trends and he has met and talked with the people at the local levels in both parties. He has studied their ground games and watched both operations. He extrapolates that up through county and then State and national. He looks at the momentum... where the candidates are campaigning and to who they are campaigning and what they are saying. He says when he does that he comes to a confident conclusion of at least 52-47 300+ EV for Romney.
When pressed for an example of trends not being caught, he pointed to Eastern Ohio and the huge increase in Evangelical and Catholic voters moving firmly to Romney. “They are not looking at them anywhere... they are not polling for them and they are not catching them”.
LLS
SoFloFreeper wrote:
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America is going to choose Obamacare and slavery to government. Game over. The Republic is doomed. Emperor Palpatin is Obamugabe.
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I don’t know about you, pal, but I live north of Pittsburgh and I’m going out in the cold today to knock on some more doors and try to rally voters to get out and vote for Mitt Romney in two days. I remain genuinely optimistic and think we can win this race.
So here’s my question for you... What are YOU going to do to help our cause other than wring your hands and spread a bunch of unproductive doom-and-gloom on our message board??? You can be spending your time making donations, knocking on doors, making phone calls, or posting and waving Romney/Ryan signs, you know!
POLITICO has an article that says that Obama’s lead in early voting is tenuous and may not be enough to counter election day voting by Republicans. Another article on POLITICO says that Romney has slight lead in Michigan.
Drudge has an article that says that Minnesota is a tie and PA is a tie.
On the other side, Drudge has an article that claims that Democrats got a judge to issue an extension on early voting in Florida,
Thanks for the graph, however, could you make the red overwhelm the blue in the ‘tie’ cases...;)
Fox last night had the number of EVs here at -262,000 for Ds from 08 (where Obama won by 260,000).
Bottom line is Ohio wouldn't be in play for Obama if any other candidate had been the nominee besides Romney. They are using the same Bain Capital ads that Kennedy used in his Senate race against Romney to savage him with white, working-class males. Tons of personal stories of plants being closed, people being laid off, going broke, etc. No other potential nominee had that unique vulnerability. Some of us tried to warn everybody about that in the primary, but not enough listened. Because Ohio is in play, it's turned the whole race into a toss-up. If we lose the election, it's solely the primary voters' fault for not doing their homework on who was most "electable."
McCain won the election day vote significantly, I cannot possibly see Romney not doing significantly better than that on Tuesday.
I expected Obama to have a slight advantage in the EV, so I’m not worried.
“Yet Nationally it’s tied at 49%, how does that happen?” - high pop states like NY and Cali go for the Obamunist in large numbers, skewing his national numbers up. Still, the internals look good for Romney and the later days, in this poll, are better than the earlier days. Smallish trend, but good news. I think people are aware the Sandy is a FAIL for the TOTUS, which will overwhelm any small bump he had.
How can you say that with the battleground state polls and early voting comparisons to 2008 looking quite good for Romney? I don’t agree with you.
Obama went up there in every debate and continues to make the lynchpin of his speeches the statement that Romney wants to return to the policies of Bush, which caused the economic crisis. Romney has not once responded to that. He has not once tried to explain how it was actually liberal policies on mortgages that caused the economic crisis. It's the talking point that keeps getting played on the MSM radio clips here in PA. It's Romney's failure to respond to that accusation despite being directly confronted on it that is the single weakest aspect of his campaign.
Translation:
That is just silly.
Romney was far from my choice for nominee, but the Dems would have ravaged any candidate we would have run. Some would have been trashed far more viciously.
Romney has held up as well as could be expected.
No kidding. It's almost as though they coordinate their clock in time or something.
Give me a break. I was a Cain guy, but he would’ve been pillaged as a ‘me too’ token candidate. All of them had negatives. The fact that it’s this close and given how well Romney did in the debates, I take it over what could have been.
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