If this turns out to be a D +2 year, Obama may win. But then, according to CNN, 2008 was a D+2.5 year, and I don’t think there is any way in hell that the country is as pro-Obama this year as it was in 2008.
2004 was a R+1.5 year, and I think that is much more realistic. If anything, I’d guess the figure will be higher this year than in 2004. Gallup agrees, calling it a R+2 year.
I think any poll that shows a significant democrat advantage in turnout is stupid. How gullible do you have to be to think Obama is as popular with democrats now as in 2008?
But we’ll see.
Ras’ data is a mess and I have zero confidence in it.
The turnout model is already wrong.
And the all-important topline number is O still cannot get to 50% even with polls tilted heavily in the Democrats’ favor.
That’s the only thing you need to know about Tuesday!