The MSM is Wrong about Ohio Early Voting - the Real Numbers from the Ohio SOS

Arec Barrwin ^ | November 3, 2012 | Ohio Secretary of State

[Arec Barrwin]

1. Here are the 2008 early vote totals from the early voting project at George Mason

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

2. Download the Excel Spreadsheet on Early Voting from OH SOS

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/Upload/news/2012/Early_Voting_Report_2012-11-02.xls

3. You will notice that OH early voting is just like VA early voting. Cuyahoga and Summit are 2 of the top 4 Democratic counties. Cuyahoga is at 95% of 2008 totals and Summit just about the same at 100% of 2008 totals. On average across the state, about a 2-3% decline in Democratic counties.

4. But look at the Republican counties. They are little by themselves but they add up. Union County had 3324 total EV in 2008 and has 7500 in now. Tuscarawas had 9339 in 2008 and 16000 now. Muskingum had 6629 in 2008 but 11900 now. You can find similar results in EVERY single Republican stronghold.

Cuyahoga in 2008 was almost the same as 2004. The difference in Ohio from 2008 to 2012 was the massive dropoff in support for McCain from Republican and swing counties. The (R) enthusiasm is not only back, but it is stronger than ever before.

Why more people aren't doing this kind of analysis is beyond me. Just look at the EV totals released by the states and you can see what is happening.

If I'm reading the numbers wrong, please tell me. But it seems that the OH and VA numbers by county tell the tale -- small decreases in the Democratic areas but huge increases in Republican areas.

[Ravi]

First one comment about a national bellwether county to tell us which way the election is going early in the nite. Indiana polls close at 7:00 est. Vigo county (terre haute) has not missed a national winner since 1956 and has been within 3% of the popular national vote every election from 1960 onwards up until 2008. It overestimated BO’s number by 4.4% in 08 giving him 57.3% when he received 52.9 nationally.

I ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO FOLLOW VIGO SO WE WILL KNOW HOW THINGS SHAPE UP EARLY.

Now for OH, I still go to my ohio bellwethers. Wood, Tuscarawas, clark, stark and Hamilton. All of these counties except for hamilton we are overperforming anywhere from 8 to 29%.

Hamilton is interesting because an astonishing 63% of early/ab voters are UAF. I think in Hamilton, these are mostly conservatives. As opposed to Franklin, I think a large portion of the UAF are libs. But even in franklin, we are overperforming 08 by 4%. And 36,000 fewer early voters in franklin compared to 08. Most of the other counties have long passed their 08 totals.

[Jane Long]

Glenn Beck said recently that a lot of dims, once they get inside the voting booth, will actually vote for Romney.

[SoftwareEngineer]

Awesome tip Ravi! Will do!

Everyone should bookmark this post

[SoftwareEngineer]

Great analysis on the “missing” Dems. LS and I were having this chat a couple of days ago. Lots of Democrats are making the (fake) point that Independents are really Democrats in OH as this Democrat primary was not contested

This has been proven false by multiple people

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll ping in case I missed it.

For reference.

[LS]

Don’t forget that a disproportionate # of “Unaffiliated” voters in Franklin and Athens are college students who won’t be around this cycle. Not the case in Hamilton.