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To: Political Junkie Too; sickoflibs
If I add a Democrat poll bias adjustment to the model, Romney has 294.9 EV (and a P90 of 317) with an 86.7% chance of winning.

I think you already know this, but that may be moving the "bias" too far in the other direction. Maybe this election will come out somewhere in between the 2008 and 2010 results. It's easy for conservatives to believe that O will not get anything beyond the 20% nutcase vote, but we have a lot of ignorant voters out there.

I am confident you know much more about the details than I do.

11 posted on 11/05/2012 6:02:53 AM PST by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (Fool me once, shame on you -- twice, shame on me -- 100 times, it's U. S. immigration policy.)
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To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
I treat the bias as an uncertainty that varies during the simulation, rather than as a constant. It ranges from zero to 2.5%,with a likely value of 1%. I think this will generate an adjustment that is still lower than the amount that people say the polls are skewed by.

-PJ

12 posted on 11/05/2012 6:33:41 AM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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