Posted on 11/04/2012 11:40:52 PM PST by Ravi
DENVER – Early voting has officially ended here in Colorado, which means voters need to drop off their ballots or go to the polls in person to vote on Election Day.
Early voting began on Oct. 22, and Friday marked the last day voters could request a mail-in ballot in Colorado. According to the Secretary of State’s Office, 1.6 million Coloradans have already returned their mail-in ballots, or have voted in person at an early-voting polling place.
(Excerpt) Read more at kdvr.com ...
I posted this just as a prelude to what the dark side (dailykos) feels about CO, turnout models, ppp polling, etc. All very fascinating.
Basically long and short is we were 2% behind in 2008 and now 2.3% ahead this year. Of course indies switched and I believe republicans will be more faithful this year compared to 08.
Let’s see what they say:
“but this has me concerned. This is a state PPP recently had us up by 4 in, and Nate has us with a 68% chance of winning...and yet it does not look good from the actual votes cast. This makes me worry about other states where PPP has us up by 4. Do the Obama oarganizers on the ground in CO have any analysis or rationale for why the Ds never made that late surge we were expecting? Anyone there with any soothing info for us?”
by MarkPA on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:18:15 PM PDT
Next drone:
“that the OFA ground game is not quite as strong as is often touted, or perhaps the Rs ground game is underrated. It is hard squaring most polls in CO showing us a few pts. ahead with these numbers.”
Bad Language ahead:
by ncps on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:24:40 PM PDT
* [new] exactly...nightmare scenario is panning out...(0+ / 0-)
their silent majority turns out in droves and the OFA ground game is not what it seems.
And Florida goes and Colorado goes and Virginia and we’re all waiting around for a few precincts in Ohio to decide the whole goddamn thing.
Because the passion and enthusiasm on our side simply isn’t what it needed to be and no amount of “ground game” bravado can make it be.
And these #’s and those in Florida are evidence.
Suddenly looking at polls and saying “Who gives a fuck? We’re LOSING in real votes in Colorado and have to win FLorida on Election Day after LOSING it to McCain by 5% in 08! Not going to happen, folks. Wake the fuck up”
More dronespeak:
* [new] It’s not just Colorado either...Florida is (2+ / 0-)
so far behind 2008 #s and it will all come down to winning the state on election day— something Obama did not do in 2008 — losing it by 5% against a horribly organized McCain campaign.
Colorado already looks lost. Period.
Ohio and Virginia. That’s where this will be decided.
There simply is no REAL early voting edge to speak of for Obama in Colorado or Florida. None. And barely anything in Ohio.
It will indeed be a very long night. Back to thinking this is going to be ridiculously close.
closet freeper?:
* [new] Flaw with your analysis?(0+ / 0-)
Here is where I think you may be making a mistake.
You’re basing voting patterns on the 2006, 2008 & 2010 elections. 2006 & 2008 were Democratic wave elections so you’d expect more Indies and defecting Repubs. 2010 was a wave election the other way.
The Republicans seem to be fired up this year whether because they prefer Romney to McCain or just can’t wait to vote against BO who knows? Democratic enthusiasm is down from 2008, and most general polls (no idea about Colorado polls) show Romney leading with Independents by a good margin.
So by using 2 pro-Dem elections and only 1 pro-Repub election aren’t you probably underestimating Republican support - certainly among Indies & Repubs?
by Catalyst65 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:36:48 PM PDT
Isn’t this the dude that stalked Palin?:
* [new] Have been calling Colorado (and Ohio/Virginia) (0+ / 0-)
from home and will continue to.
“Any one of those three (with various degrees of help) should mean Obama wins.
So yeah, am calling AND raising questions and calling people’s attention to REAL #’s so people are aware THIS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER than most here seem to think it will be.
It very well could swing the other way (Ohio, Colorado, Florida and Virginia for Romney by a point each).
Trouble brewing unless enough folks have swung or will swing to Obama since Sandy etc....so that Obama does better on Election Day itself than expected.
The Delivery Man by Joe McGinniss Jr. [Grove/Atlantic January, 2008]
by joemcginnissjr on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:59:55 PM PDT
Wow, simply fascinating.
They got hammered in FL and CO early voting using verifiable hard data, yet polls of these same states claim that Obama won the early vote by overwhelming margis.
Yep. These guys are funny to read.
Maybe these are the smart ones who see the writing on the wall.
Where did your 38,000 figure come from? It wasn’t in your linked article.
For NV, I would have preferred 60,000 out of Clark but it ended up being 70,000. Still doable, but will be tough.
But we are ahead in Washoe which I consider a bellwether. We’ll see.
First, LOL at the Dems relying on PPP, probably the worst bunch of “push” pollsters out there.
Yeah, Colorado is lost for Dems, been pretty clear for a while.
Fla - Dems were only ahead in early voting by about 3% the last figures I saw, which is a disaster for them. Obama only got 51% of the vote in 2008 in Fla, and this was with a 9 point lead in early voting. Dems in Fla are talking now about having to do BETTER than 2008 on election day to win. Not possible.
North Carolina - Obama only won by 14,000 votes in 2008, which was a fraction of a percent. Early voting by Dems is down by 5 points (16% advantage 2012 vs 21% advantage in 2008). McCain won the election day vote by a big margin and Romney should do even better. No issues here.
Nevada - tough call. Obama won early voting by a 20 point margin in 2008, he’s only ahead by 7 points currently. The big problem is Obama won election day turnout in 2008. Obama won the state by 13 points in 2008 and early voting by Dems has dropped 13 points in 2012. If election day support for Dems drop by a similar margin, Nevada is winnable for Romney.
Virginia - absentee or early voting is down in most areas compared to 2008, by 13% to 20% in areas with heavy support for Obama in 2008, down by only 1% in Republican areas. Looking good for Romney.
Dear All,
First of all, read this interesting post by Ravi:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955029/posts#2
Like a piece in a jigsaw picture, it provides a small level of detail that is crucial in understanding what the final picture will look like
Ravi is now using “liberal” analysis and data points to show why even the Democrats fear that CO is lost.
One of the accusations that we get on FR is that we are all wearing rose colored glasses and are overly optimistic. Well, read this post by Ravi that shows you what the Democrats are discussing. This shows that they TOO are analyzing the data the way we are
Ravi: GREAT JOB!!!
BOTTOM LINE: CO, NC, VA, FL are NOT IN PLAY
Let us talk about OH, PA, MI, WI, MN, NH, OR, NM, NV
Onward fellow Americans! (not to be confused with “Forward!” ;-) ;-) )
What were the early vote totals in IA and NV? Do we have means to find out?
Romney will win Colorado for sure
Ohio easily Romney
Iowa Romney
Virginia Romney
North Carolina easily Romney
Florida easily Romney
Wisconsin leaning Romney but can go either way
Nevada-—Obama
NH up for grabs
*****This way I have Mitt Romney winning the Electoral College
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