Gallup tend understate Repubs and oversates Dems.. Final 52 to 47.
LOL
This is the Gary Johnson vote deciding Obama’s a better bet to legalize pot. We’re at 50. Looking at the historical record for challengers, I’m feeling good.
We’re gonna win this thing! Are they melting down at DU yet?
How can they add the 3% of undecideds to the result “proportionally” if, by definition, their resulting vote is unknown?
This is a strange poll result. Obama up by +1. No, check that, Romney up by +1. Very confusing.
Between Oct. 22-28 and Nov. 1-4, voter support for Obama increased by six points in the East, to 58% from 52%, while it held largely steady in the three other regions. This provides further support for the possibility that Obama's support grew as a result of his response to the storm.
If this is true, 0bama's post-Sandy surge was in the part of the country he was going to win anyway. So he wins NY by 65% rather than 58%.
Among independents Obama leads 46% to 45% ?!?!?!?!
Seems pretty questionable to just divide up the undecideds proportionally. Usually they break something like 2-1 for the challenger. If you divide up the 3 percent undecideds and give Romney 2 and Obama 1, then that makes it 51 - 49 .
Seems pretty questionable to just divide up the undecideds proportionally. Usually they break something like 2-1 for the challenger. If you divide up the 3 percent undecideds and give Romney 2 and Obama 1, then that makes it 51 - 49 .
Plus, I heard Karl Rove make the point a few days ago, that historically, the incumbent only picks up about a point from the last Gallup poll. That, again would put it at 51-49 for a Romney win.
That would likely be enough to give us the election, but wow would it ever be close.