According to the Pew survey, Romney did 6% better with white evangelicals than McCain.
According to RCP’s election analysis, it wasn’t evangelicals who stayed home. It was swing blue collar white voters who soured on Obama but didn’t trust “Bain” Romney. Like Huckabee said, people don’t want to vote for the guy who looks like the guy who laid them off.
Most of them must have voted for Obama last time since most of the vote total loss came from Obama’s column. With a candidate without Romney’s Bain capital baggage of shutting down troubled companies, we would’ve won.