Replies

“If the district is MORE Republican now than in 2010, and aside from the obvious fraud, how did he lose? Did Republicans vote for the racist RAT, rather than a Conservative?”

There is no doubt that the district in which Congressman West ran (the new FL-18) is around 2% more Republican than his old FL-22. The Bush 2004 in the redrawn FL-18 was 50%, while it was 48% in the old FL-22. And Romney actually got 52% in the new FL-18; Romney likely would have gotten around 50% under the old FL-22 lines.

So how could West win in the old FL-22 in 2010 but lose in the new FL-18 in 2012? The main reason is simple: the electorate in 2012 was very different from that of 2010. 2010 was a mid-term election, with a much lower turnout in general and disproportionately lower turnout among Democrat groups, and 2010 was, as you may recall, the best GOP year since 1946. The national electorate was evenly split among Rs and Ds (D+0)in 2010. In 2012, though, every Democrat with a pulse (and some without one) turned out to vote, and the national electorate was D+6 (6% more Dem than Republican). This made it a far more difficult environment for West than it was in 2010.

The other reason why West lost was because, let’s face it, at least 2% of the district’s voters voted for Romney but not for West. Romney got 51.7% of the votein the new FL-18, but West only got 49.7%. Why did at least 2% of the electorate vote for Romney and Murphy? I guess West rubbed some people the wrong way, some voters thought that West was a carpetbagger, some voters were RINOs, and some voters were Democrats at heart but voted for Romney because they came to despise Obama. In any event, West was the only Republican incumbent to lose a House race in a district that gave Romney over 51%. You can blame his loss on Democrat cheating (and I’m sure there was quite a bit of that), or on the stupid voters (and many indeed are stupid), but it certainly wasn’t the FL legislature’s fault.

“And how come Grayson gets a district tailor made for him? He doesn’t even live in the district.”

You think a new district that is like 40% Hispanic and excludes Grayson’s home somehow was “tailor made for him”? The district was drawn to excise Democrat precincts from adjoining districts that the GOP had just recaptured in 2010 and could have gone Democrat again without major changes (and clever gerrymandering was out of the question due to that stupid “fair districts” amendment). FL Republicans did the best that they could—draw a Democrat-leaning district with a large Hispanic percentage that might give the GOP a fighting chance if a Hispanic Republican was nominated against an Anglo Democrat. What the GOP legislature could not control was (i) Grayson running in that district as a carpetbagger, bullying his way to the Democrat nomination and raising a gajillion dollars and (ii) the GOP primary electorate failing to nominate Osceola County Commissioner and former state Representative John Quiñones, instead nominating the less known (and non-Hispanic) Todd Long. Grayson won a huge margin among Hispanic voters to win an easy victory, made all the easier by Obama outperforming even his 2008 numbers in the district. Perhaps if Quiñones runs again in 2014 and gets nominated, we might have a chance of beating Grayson with a non-presidential-year electorate, but the odds don’t look very good right now.