BTTT!
Double-digit commodity inflation. The only things that haven't inflated much in price are goods manufactured overseas. So not much overall "consumer" inflation (as measured by official CPI), but plenty of "producer" inflation.
Companies getting their margins hammered by commodity inflation move to protect their margins. They cut costs anywhere they can, and that mostly means cutting payrolls and R&D budgets. These companies don't hire, don't innovate, and eventually close due to margin compression. Supply-shock happens when PPI outstrips CPI. Some people use the expression "stagflation", but I like "supply-shock" better, as it can happen even during periods of relatively low inflation (that is if you trust the numbers coming out of the BLS). Manufacturing firms are especially vulnerable, since their consumption of commodity is much higher as a percentage of overall expenses.
Anytime that red line sits higher than the blue one, it's bad news for goods producers (and the employment market).