You know, I'm not certain if you and I haven't debated this question before... indeed, you nom de FReep ;-) suggests you may know a thing or two about that 1860 election.
If so, then you may remember that I argue Lincoln was only conceivably elected in 1860 because the Southern Slave-Power, which had ruled the republic since its founding in 1788, suddenly in 1860 committed political suicide by splitting its majority Democrat party into two minority regional parties -- northern and southern.
These two Democrat regional parties allowed Republicans to become majorities in enough northern states to carry a majority of the electoral college.
Yes, I well know the objections to my suggestion, and the answer is: elections are matters of emotion as much as counting numbers.
When Democrats split their majority party in half, many former Democrats realized they had no incentive to vote for an obviously regional minority party.
They split up, some joined the Republicans, others in critical states like Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee voted for John Bell's Constitutional Union party.
Had the slave-holding "Fire Eaters" been willing to stay with their "Dough-faced" Northern Democrat allies, 1860's outcome could have been quite different.
Indeed, that may have been the case. It remains though, that the nation was very divided and the election of Lincoln simply established to the South, that they could be shut out 100 percent of the governance of the nation. That, as much as anything, would have provoked their response to leave.