Posted on 04/01/2013 12:52:16 PM PDT by driftdiver
In attrition warfare, using maneuver warfare operational art, target lists are matched to weapon and ammunition logistical flows.
China comes out well in this situation.
If NK attempts nuclear suicide by cop, the US will expend much of its available strategic arsenal, leaving China as the strong hand in a military power vacuum in the western Pacific over the next 3 years as well as our economic debt in their balance.
Note the North Korean Zimmerman Letter, to a region now becoming more heavily influenced and logistically controlled by China. More evidence this is being structured to promote strategic Chinese interests.
If the US vacates, NK becomes more dominant without firing a shot to all asymmetric warfare players.
Not to worry. If Obama is perceived as weak, 10-15 more little dictators will spring up around the globe seizing windows of opportunity in the next 3 years.
Change that to "one of Mao's old orphan dogs" and I'd be closer to agreeing. The Kim dynasty were "true believers" in a radical form of Communism and considered the Soviet leaders to be "revisonists." Obviously China has now moved far beyond revisionism and a good case could be made that China has a less-regulated and more capitalist economy than European welfare states.
The problem is the Chinese re trying to make the argument that nations can have economic freedom without political freedom. That is highly questionable, though the Chinese are trying to argue that their non-Western heritage of duty and obedience makes Asians more willing than Westerners to follow leaders without protesting too much.
35 posted on 4/1/2013 3:12:00 PM by dfwgator: “And then South Korea joins the Chinese sphere of influence in Asia.”
There's truth in that, but it is an oversimplification.
With Korea, you're dealing with a country which has existed for thousands of years in fierce independence and has successfully fought off virtually all foreign invaders. That anti-foreign attitude of fierce independence still applies today to both North and South, though obviously more radically so with the North.
There are certainly precedents to Korea being part of the Chinese “sphere of influence” going back centuries. Much has changed, however, in the last century and I don't see that as being possible under current geopolitical or economic conditions. In some future world where the United States is irrelevant and the Chinese have assumed worldwide economic domination or at least Asian economic dominance, I certainly could see South Korea being “finlandized” into an internally self-governing vassal state of the Chinese, much like it had been hundreds of years ago when the “hermit kingdom” had little contact with anyone except the Chinese.
That, however, would require prior economic domination by China of other countries including Japan, and I don't see that happening in the short term.
This comment is relevant as well:
42 posted on 4/1/2013 3:15:17 PM by Pan_Yan: "For the record China is South Korea’s largest trading partner by a wide interest."
Modern China isn't communist in any meaningful sense of the word. Fascist, maybe; I prefer phrases like "state corporatism" if I'm trying to be neutral, or "crony capitalism" if I'm trying to be offensive and perhaps overly blunt. The conditions which created South Korea's chaebol system are not unlike what is developing in China with private enterprise backed and bankrolled by very powerful government entities.
I am not at all convinced that China wants to harm South Korea. Neutralizing South Korea as a political and military threat makes much more sense as a Chinese objective.
The problem is that while the Chinese are acting carefully, cautiously and deliberately, I don't think the North Koreans are acting rationally at all, and even their highest leaders may act against their own personal self-interest due to fear and lack of accurate information.
97 posted on 4/1/2013 6:04:33 PM by Zhang Fei: "Today, the tables are turned - South Korea is a developed country on par with much of the West, whereas North Korea is economically worse off than most African countries. In terms of total national output (GDP), South Korea's number is almost 100x that of North Korea. This is why it's pretty clear that North Korea does not have what it takes to overrun the South."
Yes, but as others have stated, they do have what it takes to cause tremendous devastation.
The fact that South Korea has one of the world's larger economies looks less like a good thing when we realize North Korea is perfectly capable of killing hundreds of thousands of people and causing millions of injuries and dislocated refugees within a couple of hours by letting loose an artillery and missile strike on Seoul.
Let's say North Korea's leaders go batshit crazy and attack the South. Even if China does act to decapitate the North Korean leadership and we see a war end in short order, the amount of economic damage to Asia will be in the tens of billions of dollars, and will cause significant economic problems in the United States and Europe as well.
A war running even a few weeks would make that sort of devastation look mild by comparison. Yes, the North Koreans will lose, and they will lose even if Obama does nothing with American forces. But the resulting mess in South Korea will incapacitate their economy for a long time, possibly forcing them to rely on Chinese help to rebuild their economy if the United States can't or won't do so.
And none of that is even beginning to consider the economic impact of trying to fix the North's broken economy. Look at what it took to reintegrate East Germany into West Germany, and the East Germans were in much better shape than North Korea.
99 posted on 4/1/2013 7:25:18 PM by Forward the Light Brigade: "North Korea can not defeat South Korea or Japan—just beat them up and damaged their infrastructure so it will take a dozen years to re-build. That is all China Needs."
Bingo... we have a winner. Or at least I'm afraid you're right.
China wants to build their vision of the East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.
Bringing South Korea into the fold, would be a huge step towards that end...And the last thing China would want is for a war between North and South Korea.
China wants leverage, so they can ultimately make the deal with South Korea, join us in an alliance, kick the US out, and we will solve the “North Korea Problem.”
Reunification would eventually turn into a huge building boom in the former NK. China would be the logical supplier of building materials as well as goods for a new consumer market.
A Wag-the-Dog scare campaign is under way to deflect attention away from the economy, constitutional illegitimacy, and the Reggie Love story. Unfortunately, those regimes opposed to the USA can sense that we are being led by a very weak, very vulnerable scoundrel, and a do-nothing charlatan, whose hand they might well try to force.
Remember, "The Last Refuge of a Scoundrel is Patriotism?"
Dr. Samuel Johnson
Is this sarcasm?
Sure remember that Japan bombed Pearl Harbor.
your observations make a lot of sense...thanks for helping shed some light on this crazy situation.
Thank you for the comments and for the photo.
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