Three to seven pick-ups.
• WV probable Rep (Capito looks like pre-emptive favorite)
• NC likely Rep (Myrick has shown strength in early polling, but GOP field hasn’t coalesced)
• SD likely Rep (Rounds looks like a pre-emptive favorite)
• AR leans Rep (Lincoln lost badly in 2010, but GOP field hasn’t coalesced; wouldn’t be too surprised if Pryor switches)
• AK leans Rep (Parnell has shown strength in early polling)
• LA leans Rep (Jindal has declined, but maybe could change his mind)
• MT leans Rep (with Baucus out, Republicans should win)
• CO leans Dem (Owens has shown strength in early polling)
• IA leans Dem (looks wide open)
• OR leans Dem (elected with 49%, has shown weakness in early polling)
• MI likely Dem (retirement opens an opportunity)
• NH likely Dem (could be third and deciding round of Shehaan v Sununu)
• MN likely Dem (Some Republican has got to think he can beat Franken)
• NJ probable Dem (Booker looks like a pre-emptive favorite)
• NM safe Dem (elected with 61%)
• VA safe Dem (elected with 65%, has a double-digit lead over McDonnell)
Why did we lose Montana (and for that matter, North Dakota) - we didn’t nationalize these Senate races. Ryan should’ve gone to each of these states to make an appearance with our candidates.
and IYHO the GOP held seats are lean GOP or better?
Lousy candidates.
Didn’t Sununu say he was out of the NH race?
The one issue that could've nationalized the race for the GOP -- successfully -- was Obamacare.
But, of course, no Republican could run against Obamacare -- because our presidential candidate invented it.