[GonzoGOP]

Yeah, things wear out and are replaced on an as-needed basis, but I see no wholesale splurging or even mini-splurging.

Replacement demand will never make up for the demand of conspicuous consumption. Look at cars. People are not buying a new car ever couple of years any more. The statistics show that cars now go six to eight years before replacement rather than the four year average before 2008. It isn't that cars last longer, it is that people are now going for more years of use after they finish the lasts loan payment. You have effectively halved demand.

[proxy_user]

Ha! I just traded in my 15-year-old car on a 4-year-old car. I don’t drive enough to justify buying a new car.

And cars do last much longer than they used to, if you maintain them properly.