LIVE THREAD: Australian Federal Election Count as it happens

7th September 2013

[naturalman1975]

ABC is giving a count - 76 seats wins the election.

ABC predicting:

Labor - 38
Coalition - 69
Greens - 0
Others - 1

Anthony Green (generally regarded as Australia’s best electoral statistician) is basically saying he’s ready to call the election for the coalition.

On ‘likely votes’, he already has the coalition at 75, only one short of a majority with Labor only on 42.

[melsec]

http://www.aec.gov.au/voting/How_to_vote/Voting_Senate.htm

May help a little!

[Heatseeker]

The ALP got what they deserved when drafted Beattie in, it looks like to me. I’m watching an interview with him on 7 now and he’s trashing his own party leadership. Amazing.

[mrreaganaut]

Thanks! I didn’t realise that both the House and the Senate used preferences. That being said, the senatorial method of letting the parties set the preferences still seems odd.

[naturalman1975]

OK - while I have time, I'll try a brief explanation - but the Senate is complicated.

We borrowed the American idea of each state having an equal number of Senators - in our case it's twelve. Normally, half the senators go up for election at a time - so six in each state (there is a rare constitutional circumstance in which the entire Senate is reelected at once).

The Senate tends to have a lot of candidates - we had 97 in my state today, representing, I think 43 different parties, as well as a few independents.

We have preferential voting where you have to number the candidates in order of preference. Obviously with so many candidates this is difficult, so you actually have a choice - each party produces a voting pattern which they give to the Australian Electoral Commission, and if you choose to vote for that party (by simply marking one box 'above the line') on the ballot paper, your votes are allocated according to that pattern. So if you vote Liberal above the line, you accept your vote will be counted the Liberal party wants it to be. You also have the option of voting below the line - in which case you do have to number every box.

Now, six senators are elected at a time - so what they do is they assign a 'quota' of 1/7th of the votes cast to determine who is elected. After the votes are counted, any candidate who gets more than 1/7th of the vote is elected. Once that is done, if all six seats haven't been filled, then remaining seats are given to whoever has the most votes out of anybody who hasn't already been elected.

[naturalman1975]

That being said, the senatorial method of letting the parties set the preferences still seems odd.

It's a matter of practicality - the number of candidates (my state was 97, and I know NSW was more than that) means requiring people to vote all their preferences means a lot of people would never finish.

[melsec]

Well they can but a lot of people this year have taken the option of distributing their own preferences by filling out all the boxes below the line in the Senate. I personally gave my preferences to people I think will stand up against the importation of the Islamic culture - it was my first ‘redneck’ vote and I feel damn good about it!

[naturalman1975]

Anthony Green making his first actual total prediction.

Coalition - 93
ALP - 56
Others - 1

[knarf]

Evenin’ mite ... any thoughts ?

[naturalman1975]

It’s a conservative landslide. Pure and simple.

[naturalman1975]

The official AEC count has the coalition on 33, Labor on 11, 106 still in doubt.

[fortheDeclaration]

What is the Palmer Party?

[naturalman1975]

New party established by one of Australia’s richest men, Clive Palmer. He used to be part of the Nationals and Liberal Nationals, but had differences with them, so he started his own party. Doesn’t look like it’s worked out for him at this point.

[naturalman1975]

May need to correct that - Palmer still has a chance of winning one seat (the one he is running in) and entering Parliament himself, although it’s highly unlikely any other Palmer United Party people will be elected.

[fortheDeclaration]

Thanks.

[naturalman1975]

With 13.9% counted, the Coalition is ahead 55-45.

Labor looks like it has lost 10 so far, and Coalition gained 12.

Labor’s primary vote is at its lowest level since the Great Depression, by the looks of it.

[Dundee]

Palmer might just pick up a Senate seat in QLD.

[fortheDeclaration]

It seems it is effecting some other elections as well.

[naturalman1975]

Yes, Palmer United preferences may deliver some seats to the Coalition that might have otherwise gone Labor. We’ll see.

[Heatseeker]

Care to recommend which news network is best for us to watch? I have found Sky, Seven and Nine online so far.