Quinnipiac:
Tmac +7, as it has been for over 8 weeks.
Believe me, the Rasmussen poll scared the hell out of me yesterday but it ain’t over till it’s over. Bloomberg is sticking his nose in this race, the 2A can be motivated. Surprisingly we have an opportunity with men, I hate to say it but forget the women at this point. Any woman that believes this BC and “war on women” bull shit is not going to change their minds in the next 2 weeks.
Please contribute to our guy, please help us out in the last 2 weeks. Don’t let them have Virginia!
The problem with all of the polls is that no one knows who is going to turn out for this off-year, gubernatorial election. Pollsters are using likely voter models that include the presidential elections in 2008 and 2012. To me, a better likely voter model would be who voted in the 2009 gubernatorial election?
My suspicion is that a lot of the Northern Virginia, young, hip, Obama voters are not going to show up for this election. This is going to be all about turnout.