Heck, they can't get tomorrow's local temp right more than 10% of the time.
My forecaster has a "Three Degree Guarantee" forecast - he'll be right, to within three degrees of the next day's high temp. For those in Rio Linda, that's SEVEN degrees of latitude (+3 above, -3 below, and the correct temp).
Even with all of the leeway, he still regularly misses his "guaranteed" temp prediction. For local temps. On the 11pm news. For the next day - so the prediction is for within a few hours.
And the same people are going to use the same models to predict hurricanes and their strengths a year out? Or global temperatures for 100 years out?
Gimme a break.
Meterology: the only profession where you can be PUBLICLY, CONSISTENTLY wrong and still keep your job!
If you’re thinking about the same weatherman I am, he did call the storm of ‘93 correctly...