You’re right, Dems can easily manufacture sufficient votes to cover a mere 4% deficit. They won’t even break a sweat doing this. You need at least a 6 or 7 point advantage to be anywhere near safe.
In a state wide race in Louisiana, the Demorats get 96% of the black vote, the union vote and also are supported by the Sheriff’s of the different Parishes; add to that the white liberal eggheads and it comes awfully close to 50%, plus the mayor of N.O. is ML’s brother.
It will be a close election, IMHO....