BSA 2013 National Membership Study - Executive Summary released 4/19/2013, key excerpts below ...
61% of scouters (volunteer leaders) favored traditional standard, 34% opposed it.
61% of Boy Scout parents supported the traditional standard
50% of Cub Scout parents supported traditional standard, 45% opposed it
51% of major donors supported the traditional standard, while 33% opposed it.
But a majority of Fortune 500 companies want to see the policy changed to support open homosexual identification in Scouting.
BSA has been losing membership since 1973. The new Membership Standard adopted on 5/23/2013 to allow openly homosexual youth, but no adults, will accelerate the membership decline, but not dramatically at first. It may take a year, i.e., early 2015, before BSA releases its annual membership statistics before we can judge how BSA membership has been affected.
I predict that guys who are just a couple years from Eagle Scout are not going to quit, because that means abandoning something they've been working toward for so long. But you're going to see fewer and fewer young kids coming in as the encroachment of "gay youth culture" becomes more obvious.
Well if they are Eagles in spirit if not the currently accepted definition, they will stand like men on their core principles and tell the BSA to FOAD.
In the end it doesn’t matter who caved hardest. The BSA caved. And to associate with it post cave is support.
As you indicated the BSA is in a long term decline, since 1973. This decline will continue, but at some point it will probably flatten out. Look at the statistics from the 2013 National Survey - 50% of Cub Scout parents supported open homosexuals in BSA. There is a HUGE generational change in attitudes/values out there. The parents in their 20s-30s for the most part have already accepted normalization of homoexuality in American culture.