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yeah, holding steady for an hour or so.

On the one hand this morning is the worst it’s been in years, and on the other hand the past few years have been extraordinarily kind. Remembering ‘09 this is nottin’.

Exactly. It’s been an incredible ride since March 2009. I was at a presentation two weeks ago with the chief economist for NASDAQ and the lead floor governor for NYSE. The economist was, naturally, pessimistic and the trader was, naturally, optimistic. The best thing from the presentation was the technical chart for S&P showing that we might be having a technical breakout after a double top peak (1999 and 2007). He said that the markets had gone up by 30% in a year four times since the 70’s. In the following year the average increase is 22%.

The other interesting thing was a presentation by Richard Fisher on monetary and fiscal policy. Harsh words about the fiscal side of the house.

Dave Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus has a round-up of what traders are chatting about before the opening bell:

Good Morning! All about the Ukraine this AM, as Russia’s latest moves spark angst and a flight to safety. Futures in the USA are marked off 1%, and just off the lows of the overnight. As VIX futures are marked up 10% This mirrors weakness overseas, with the DAX off almost 3%, and the FTSE 2%, as banks have been hit by concerns over exposure to Russian and Ukrainian banks. Volume is quite heavy in Europe, with most markets trading 50% above their recent 20day averages. Russia off over 10% as the Rouble collapses to record lows – Their Central Bank stepped in and raised 150bp, citing “risks to financial stability”. Poland’s market was initially hit for almost 4%. Ukraine itself not off all the bad, as their FX is higher as they await bailout teams, and their CDS is only up 1% overnight. In Asia, China bounced almost 1% despite their PMI hitting 7M lows, as one of the “unintended consequences” of the Yuan weakening is liquidity is spiking in their money markets. The Nikkei was hit for 1.2%, and futures are marked about 80bp lower – as the Yen is spiking on haven flows. Sectors to focus on will be the weaker banks (Ukraine/Russia exposure) – Gold Miners (up 4% as Gold is spiking) – Casinos (Macau Numbers blowing out) – and the Divvy Sectors like REITS with 10YY dropping hard.

10YY crashes under the 200dma – Now yielding 2.6%, gearing up to test October Lows near 2.47%. We have Safe haven FX jumping – including the Yen and Swiss Franc. The Euro is getting hit sharply, helping the DXY bounce despite the jumping Yen – a headwind for commodities. That said, Russia is the world’s largest energy exporter, including both oil and gas – so combined with the cold Northeast, we have both Brent and Natty up 2.5%. Gold is adding 2% on haven flows, now the highest since October. Wheat climbed the most in 17 months and corn rose to the highest since September as tensions escalated in Ukraine, a leading exporter of both grains.

Personal spending up +0.4% (exp +0.1%)
Perosnal income +0.3% (exp +0.2%)
PCE +1.1% (exp +1.1%)