Not necessarily. They can bring it to a vote again next year. Every time they do so, it's a smack in the kisser for the Dems. Without the penalty, Obamacare is a big loser for the insurance companies, which means sky-high premiums, which is yet another smack in the kisser for the Dems. Until the GOP has majorities in both chambers and the White House, Obamacare cannot be repealed, but merely tinkered with.
Will a sufficient number of O voters be affected by those economics? If so, will they be able to connect the dots?
You are probably correct about not being in a position to repeal O'care, but why facilitate a soft landing for the progressives? Why not pass a permanent delay and let them choke on it?