I’m guessing that the more committed Ukrainian nationalists may figure that Putin will continue to gradually slice off chunks of Ukraine, until Putin has what he wants, and what remains is too weak to do much about it. It’s another form of incrementalism. At any given step, the Russian agression is not “big” enough for the West to honor its formal Security Assurances to Ukraine, and Ukraine doesn’t have the firepower to defeat concentrated Russian forces in the East.
So, the tactic might be to blow the pipelines at Ukraine’s far western border, once warmer weather arrives. This cripples Russia’s economy, forcing them to cross the entire Ukraine, through a lot of hostile terrain. (To use another poster’s word) the opposition goal is to “tarball” ‘em. Ukraine lost something like 19% of its population in WW2, and still came out of it a subject country. My guess is that the opposition would accept 500k casualties in order to free the Ukraine. Assuming the Russians could maintain a 10:1 kill ratio (I don’t know that they’d be THAT superior in such a conflict, over the long haul) Russia loses 50k soldiers and their economy. I think Russia folds...
The risk is that this takes time: The Europeans, faced with the next winter and severe gas shortages, might turn on Ukraine.
Yes if the Russians are stupid enough to try to take the whole Ukraine they will have another Afghanistan on their hands. The Ukrainians hate their guts. It will be a war of resisitance and guerilla fighting which will sap their bank accounts and will not be popular with the Russian populace.
Purin would have to kiss that pipeline goodbye and it would kill him financially. The last thought on the mind of Ukranians would be keeping the EU war. Putey’s name would be shite in all of Europe. He does not want that. He really wants the Crimea and to keep his naval base safe.