I don’t doubt Moscow has instigated a covert war in Ukraine. It carries fewer costs for the Kremlin than an outright invasion. And Vladimir Putin as a judo champion, understands the best way to defeat an opponent is to turn his strength against himself.
That is what makes him such a dangerous adversary: he has successfully married 19th Century Great Power goals with 21st Century stealth warfare. And we’re not even playing in his league. He is always ahead of the West which is belatedly playing catch-up in a futile bid to contain him.
Still it boils down to this tug of war over Ukraine currently....which has been brewing 'for years' between all the players now showing their hands.