Legality of the Crimean Referendum: Legal Analysis

The Venice Commission, Council of Europe ^

[quadrant]

Remember, Putin called the dissolution of the USSR a tragedy.

Now, do I believe that Putin seeks to physically reestablish the Russian Empire as it was in 1914? No, I believe the man is far too intelligent to harbor such a fantasy.

What I do think he wants to establish some sort of “protectorate” over Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasian, and the Baltic states. As to Russia's relationship to the Central Asian states, I think a “protectorate” is less probable.

What this “protectorate” would entail, I don't know; and I think its form would vary from country to country.

I believe he will let Poland and the other east European states go their own way, as attempting to control them would only arouse intense antagonism in the West.

I believe Putin wants to establish some sort of trading alliance/bloc with China. Russian energy in exchange for Chinese money would go a long way to modernizing the Russian economy. I think Putin sees this sort of bloc as a Eurasian counterweight to the maritime EU/NATO alliance.

Will this happen? I don't know, but none of it is outside the realm of possibility. If attempted, its success would depend on Putin recognition of limits; that is, his acceptance that none of it could be established except over a long period of time. All he can do is to take the first small bites - such as Crimea - and leave the rest of the meal to his successors.

Never forget that old truism, “Russia is never as strong as it looks or a weak as it looks.”

[annalex]

Yes, I think you describe his goals accurately.