Today’s Russia isn’t yesterday’s Soviet Union, and that has to be taken into account. It’s an electronic society, and public opinion must be considered.
That said, there has never been a better time for Russia to settle some accounts, as recent events have proven, but the window for that kind of action is short.
Big moves, like invading Europe, or Poland, just aren’t on the table, IMO, but moves like Eastern Ukraine, or settling the Tajikistan border are.
NATO won’t move unless a NATO member is threatened, and Putin knows it. Europe is just too dependent on Russian Energy for that.
The Wild Card in all of this really is Obama. Putin keeps jabbing, and the Narcissist-in-chief is liable to do something stupid. Like call Russia a “Regional Power” than can just be ignored.
Can’t you see Commander Obama leading his troops deep into Russian held territory? Gives an entire new meaning to, “Charge of the light brigade.”