I agree on your models, but the first model ends with sovereign bankruptcy and dissolution, absent a sugar daddy. Thus all of the former Warsaw Pact nations.
Depends on the country, and how long that model is in place for. Russia has done well exploiting its natural resources and regional military supremacy. But they are fast running out of road. The economy remains at the Montenegro level of advancement.
Another model would be the rise of an individual on the order of Napoleon III who reformed laws promoted industry rebuilt Paris etc
If he had not overreached against the Prussians he would be remembered favorably. Keep an eye on Marine LePen