If the judge is a republican he’ll impose the appropriate sentence. If it’s a democrat judge then who knows? He could only get a few years. Very good chance that Obama pardons the piece of crap at the end of his term.
He’ll more likely get a worse sentence with a Democrat judge, and it is likely ‘teh communiteh’ will throw him under the bus - hard. In large part he is the scapegoat for the VASTLY more odious, venal and malicious Morial administration. Patsy Nagin is a windfall for them, as was the flood and loss of documents. Or post hoc loss of documents.
The Judge is Ginger Berrigan, a stalwart Democrat and a Clinton appointee. Marc Morial was the preceding mayor and an especial pet of Clinton. Morial benefits from Nagin being the scapegoat for both wretched mayoral administrations.
Look for Nagin to get close to the max, but a bit less to preserve Berrigan’s reputation as moderate and humane.
I’m calling 18 years, UNLESS Nagin has some good dirt on other Democrats. I don’t think he does, ironically because he is relatively clueless and honest by NOLA standards.
I see 18 years. 16 if he is lucky.