IMO I don't buy that guess about what will happen at all.
What if we instead force Michael Obama’s lunch programs on them instead if they refuse to go away?
I see Iraq ending up split 3 ways midwest and south west attached to Syria, north and north west to the Kurds and south and east to Iran. But they’ll be a prolonged fight in the middle between Shia and Sunnis. The Kurds have already pulled back to what the claim and Isis touched and turned. May even end up as a repeat of the 80s war with chem weapons and thousands killed on both sides - including child sacrifices to find mines. But it’ll be long.