Posted on 06/25/2014 5:47:58 AM PDT by kristinn
There was a fairly pronounced downward spike in the business world that began in February and really didn’t start easing until May. Other than Obamacare and the weather, I have no explanation and neither does anyone else I know. It just died. Timing seemed oddly tied to that Malaysian plane thing, but I can’t imagine that actually having anything to do with it.
I though Q4 2013 was revised down to a -0.1.
Quantify “decent growth.” Even assuming 3% growth every other quarter in 2014 means 2014 GDP will be 1.5% at best!
who are the kidding? we never got out of the “great recession.”
“Were reliving the 1970s except with better television shows.”
I’m not so sure about even that! Better phones? Absolutely. Better TV shows? I’m dubious!
Call me an old fart but I actually miss substantial phones with an analog bell ringing. All the electronics and plastics seem so throwaway. Adds to the sense of surreality. With the volume of calls I have coming in now, I’d hate to have to use a rotary dial for all of them, but there’s still something oddly satisfying about using one.
Methodology screw up with the new Obamacare numbers coming into play.
Here’s Wells Fargo’s take:
First Quarter Contraction Deeper Than Initially Thought
Recording larger declines with each revised estimate, real GDP contracted at a 2.9 percent annual rate in Q1.
A swift rebound in economic activity should unfold in Q2, with firming rates of growth expected in H2.
Health Care Spending Reversal
- The third pass at first quarter GDP resulted in the largest quarterly contraction since Q1 2009. Consumer healthcare
spending, once thought to have been a positive, subtracted
0.16 percentage points from overall growth. As such, total
consumer spending is now reported to have expanded at a
1.0 percent annual rate, substantially lower than the previously reported 3.1 percent estimate.
Not looking good for the home team. Especially with this administrations penchant for revised numbers a month later. What if next month gets revised downward even more than this month's horrible numbers??
Because as the next chart below shows, between the second and final revision of Q1 GDP something dramatic happened: instead of contributing $40 billion to real GDP in Q1, Obamacare magically ended up subtracting $6.4 billion from GDP. This, in turn, resulted in a collapse in Personal Consumption Expenditures as a percentage of GDP to just 0.7%, the lowest since 2009!
Don't worry thought: this is actually great news! Because the brilliant propaganda minds at the Dept of Commerce figured out something banks also realized with the stub "kitchen sink" quarter in November 2008. Namely, since Q1 is a total loss in GDP terms, let's just remove Obamacare spending as a contributor to Q1 GDP and just shove it in Q2.
Stated otherwise, some $40 billion in PCE that was supposed to boost Q1 GDP will now be added to Q2-Q4.
And now, we all await as the US department of truth says, with a straight face, that in Q2 the US GDP "grew" by over 5% (no really: you'll see).
Remain Calm All is Well
Yah huh! there ya be!
And Tea Party Extremists!
The MSM won’t care.
What dates do the new mandates (business?) kick in? Anybody?
Purposely.
Yes.
Especially Tea Prty extremists!!
Global Warming is more important to this bunch. Or it’s a deflection tactic.
Exactly.
I thought that Aunt Clara had died...
I bought 4 MaxwelHouse Master Blend 44 ounce containers at Sam’s Club online for $8.58 each.
This year my membership more than paid for itself.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.