:-)
“In response to today’s data, we have revised up our forecast of real GDP growth in Q2 2014 to 4.0% from 3.0%,” writes Barclays’ Dean Maki. “We have raised our forecast of real consumer spending to 3.5% from 3.0%, as we expect that some of the anticipated health care spending originally expected in Q1 2014 will now occur in Q2 2014. We have also modestly changed our assumptions for net exports and inventories to be a bit more favorable in Q2 2014 than previously expected.”
Tyler Durden must be on to something.
Forgetting for a moment the numbers, I’m going to go by gut over the months of april, may, and june, which I assume is the 2nd quarter of a GDP year.
I live a comfortable middle class life based on a career military retirement and current employment. I am the pastor of a church in rural America, but we’re close enough to a major metropolitan area that I see the agricultural, business, service, and industrial jobs impact on parishoners and their families. Plus, I have a feel for finances of people based on church giving.
The employment that is happening is part time service type jobs. I know some highly trained people who have gotten employed in the medical and technology industries, but their ability for training is rare. The retired folk on fixed income must rigidly watch every dime. There are no new cars in our congregation over that 3 month period and most people do not talk about major purchases. Basic costs of living, food, fuel, and maintenance, have risen. I don’t hear complaints about losing insurance and higher insurance costs.
So, I see things standing still. Any added part time job really is just to keep up, to provide a little breathing room.
If you were to ask me based on my gut feel, I’d say that growth was at 0 and that decline was at 0.