Posted on 07/16/2014 12:02:12 PM PDT by GilGil
We are now in a situation where every major economy in the world is in a total mess.” Greyerz goes on to explain, “Japan’s economy is going to disappear into the Pacific. China is having its problems. Europe has problems. The EU will never work and was not supposed to work. The euro is an artificial currency and, in the long run, will not survive. The U.S. stock market is at an all-time high, but that has nothing to do with the real economy which is an absolute mess. So, the world has never been in a situation where all nations simultaneously are having problems that are insoluble. Every major nation is running a deficit today. So, right now, I think we are going to revisit 2008; but this time, there is no solution.”
(Excerpt) Read more at usawatchdog.com ...
But the question is how will big government end?
Will it be like musical chairs, and whomever is mostly in power when the music stops stays in power?
When big govt ends, does totalitarian govt begin?
We’re all gonna die!!
Let me guess, another guy who’s been short since Dow 8,000.
In case he hasn’t been looking the Dollar is strengthening now that Yellen has signaled that QE is basically over this year.
Gold going to $10,000 . . . the constant broken clock prediction.
Boring.
Then you have nothing to worry about absolutely nothing!
My tagline states my position. How serious am I?
I lived in Seattle for 45 years and two weeks before the 2008 election I bought a 12 acre farm in central, rural KY.
And I honestly thought McCain would win.
We moved thre in August of 2011 and I have no doubt the question is not “if” but “when” it will collapse. And it’s not decades off.
Again, see my tagline.
Atta boy, Obama!
We will issue a separate report in the next 10 days covering our market predictions and the importance of physical gold for wealth preservation purposes.
16th August
Egon von Greyerz
On 8/16/10 the gold price was around the $120 range on the SPDR Gold Trust and the S&P was around 1100. Today, nearly four years later, the SPDR Gold Trust is near 125 and the S&P is nearing 2,000.
That's more settled science than Al Gore's BS. Even CASH has beaten the SPDR Gold Trust since his 2010 prediction.
Unlike most of the posters on FR I actually am a money manager professionally, I can't hide behind incorrect predictions like these or I wouldn't have any clients left.
Appreciate your input. I must say, anytime I see a goldbug, my skepticism meter starts pinging. What is fact, however, is that under Obama debt has increased well beyond the point of no return.
Just cause I don’t know - how can cash which has experienced inflation perform better than the gold numbers you indicated which are 125 vs 100?
My inflation measurement is based on basic goods which are more than twice the price they were in 2000, and since 2010 have seen price increases of more than 25%.
Are you saying that cash has earned higher interest rates than the increase in gold has provided? Neither of them have held up with the inflationary pricing on basic goods, but gold has been much closer as the 125/100 is a 25% increase over 4 years which is about 6%/year whereas most savings accounts and CDs have been less than 3% APR from what I’ve seen.
So what are you basing that cash vs SPDR trust comparison on? I’m not invested in SPDR GOLD and only hold a small amount of metals - but open to learning.
The SPDR Gold Trust is basically supposed to monitor the price of Gold. Since this guy who was featured in this thread made his prediction in August 2010 of the next few years (and why he believed Gold would be the place to be), the price of the SPDR basically is unchanged (120 to 125 for almost FOUR YEARS is 1% compounded annual return, give or take a little).
I don’t know where you got the 100 as the starting point for the SPDR. It was $120 in August 2010.
Meanwhile you could have bought a 4-year CD in August 2010 that would have likely outperformed that.
And the S&P has basically gone from 1100 to nearly 2000 in the same time frame.
Doesn’t matter what the inflation indicator is, Gold has VASTLY under-performed the inflation, PERIOD.
Even if the S&P was flat for the four years the DIVIDENDS beat the Gold price, all by themselves.
Oh, there’s a solution. The banks, the Fed, and Wall St. just can’t stomach it.
Facts are useless in these threads...
So,Sir,have an opinion on when the USD is gonna go flat on us all?
What is your personal opinion of the So Called FED in regard to “Who da hells gonna make the Creatures from J I solvent this Next time around...and HOW” ???
I’ve commented on that in other threads but here are a few things that I clearly believe:
The reason why the huge increase in the money supply has not led to and will likely not lead to much higher inflation is simply that the velocity of money collapsed in 2007-08 and has not recovered much at all. Those who are taking the mantra of monetarism conveniently forget that there are TWO parts of that equation, not one.
The Fed was put in a tough place back then and took the least painful way out. With the debt loads in our society deflation HAD to be AVOIDED.
I wish the bailout had been handled very differently. I would have bailed out the depositors but I would have broken up the majors (except Wells Fargo, which didn’t get into trouble - JP Morgan was more problematic, I do believe they didn’t need the money and was forced to go along by Giethner) and merged them into the bigger regional banks that didn’t get into trouble. This would have permanently reduced both the influence of the NY/DC banking influence and spread the future of banking over a wider range geographically, as well as taught the know-it-all Northeast a lesson they would never recover from!
One thing that so many people misunderstand is the issue of the Fed unwinding QE. There is NO REASON for them to do so. Unless they could reduce the balance sheet favorably for profit. Otherwise they just HOLD TO MATURITY and the Treasury basically nets out the holdings. This is the greatest free trade EVER. Hold to maturity or sell for profit, with NO MARK TO MARKET NECESSARY!
Wish I had that option . . .
As for the Dollar, just look the last few days since Yellen started to testify. The Dollar is rising, and given how other economies are going we will likely be the safe haven again down the line. After all, it’s only a few months until November. A Republican sweep of the Senate would be very bullish for the Dollar and Stocks to me.
One thing that so many people misunderstand is the issue of the Fed unwinding QE. There is NO REASON for them to do so. Unless they could reduce the balance sheet favorably for profit. Otherwise they just HOLD TO MATURITY and-—————— the Treasury basically nets out the holdings. ——This is the greatest free trade EVER. Hold to maturity or sell for profit, with NO MARK TO MARKET NECESSARY!
Nets out? Free trade etc??
Things like that make me think -—there is no such thing as profit, JUST DEBT??
The FED DOES print worthless paper does it not?..OUT of thin air, right?..The FED members ‘profit’ VERY well under this arrangement, NO?
Not you or me, THE FED MEMBERS !! Where is that Multiplier Nancy P keeps saying happens? The increased money supply should have produced what? 3 or 4 percent GDP increase according to her ! Instead we are told we just have more dang debt!
It ain’t a ponzi scheme exactly, but it sure is fixed against we ordinary players who do not sit on a Fed member bank’s board......All hail GS,JPM,BNY Mellon etc etc /sarc
“The FED members ‘profit’ VERY well under this arrangement, NO?
Not you or me, THE FED MEMBERS !! Where is that Multiplier Nancy P keeps saying happens? The increased money supply should have produced what? 3 or 4 percent GDP increase according to her ! Instead we are told we just have more dang debt!
It ain’t a ponzi scheme exactly, but it sure is fixed against we ordinary players who do not sit on a Fed member bank’s board......All hail GS,JPM,BNY Mellon etc etc /sarc”
This is where you go off base. Any profits the Fed generates goes to the US Treasury, not the members of the Fed. Not Pelosi. Not the banks.
You took a legitimate thing to question, which is how much profitability should the government try for and took it into La-La land.
I can’t make this any simpler. If the Fed buys Treasuries at Par, when they are issued, to increase the money supply, and they hold it to maturity, which I see as very possible, there is NO PROFIT, just a book entry netting out from the Fed to the Treasury. But the desired goal of pushing out money to the economy to offset the reduction in velocity in the real economy has been accomplished.
Please, stick to the actual facts and don’t go off to tangents that have no basis in reality.
My mistake I read the 2010 price as 100 vs 120
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