Dole would have narrowly won it with all of the Perot (in 96 I think he took more from Dole by a very wide margin) and Browne vote.
It’s been close and in play in 3 of the last 4 elections (and will be again in 2016 unless it’s a sizeable rat win along the lines of 2008), to me that’s what “swing state” means, It’s Obama margin was only 5.58%, only slightly larger than Colorado. If it ain’t a “swing state” then it’s surely the closest state you would exclude from that moniker.
I would rate the rat the slight favorite in 2016, so yes if we win it, we’re very likely winning the election.
Florida (which was stolen, Romney won), Ohio, Virginia, gets you 266, and then we need 1 more.
We’re talking semantics here. If “swing state” means that it goes from D to R depending on who wins the election nationwide (like OH, NV and FL), then NH isn’t a “swing state,” but I think that we can call it a “battleground state.”