Ebola test carried out after air passenger death in UK at Gatwick -- tests negative for ebola

BBC News ^ | Aug 3, 2014 | BBC

[Hawthorn]

>> Imagine, having already been symptomatic, Dr. Brantly having been allowed to take that long transatlantic flight having initially tested negative for Ebola. <<

Sure. So OK, for the sake of argument let’s make that assumption, unlikely as it is.

But then we’re also entitled to make other logically possible assumptions, for example, that Dr. Brantly started vomiting and then passed out during the flight, after which the plane was forced to make an emergency landing at the nearest U.S. airport — with a quarantine order being immediately imposed upon all passengers and crew. Pandemic averted.

In other words, as long as one is allowed to let the “imagination” roam free, unrestrained by logic, experience and common sense, there’s no limit to the disasters we can cook up.

[Black Agnes]

He wouldn’t need to have vomited on everyone.

Apparently coughing or sneezing in an enclosed area can spread it as well.

Although the Liberian expat who crashed in Lagos seems to have done a good job spreading the infection. 1 for sure, 2 probable. And, 8 more having suspicious symptoms even though they’ve tested negative. So far.

[Hawthorn]

>> He wouldn’t need to have vomited on everyone. Apparently coughing or sneezing in an enclosed area can spread it as well. <<

OK, let’s play your game. I withdraw my previous assumptions and accept your new one.

But then I’m now free to assume further that Dr. Brantly, as an expert on Ebola, told a stewardess to notify the pilot that he should radio ahead with a message to CDC in Atlanta, saying that Brantly was coughing and sneezing, with the result that all passengers had now probably been exposed to Ebola.

Upon getting that news, CDC staff tell their counterparts at FAA and TSA, who in turn order the plane to land ASAP in Atlanta, with an immediate quarantine being imposed on everybody aboard. Again, pandemic nipped in the bud.

[Black Agnes]

I don’t play games.

Research has shown that it’s transmitted far more easily than just ‘contact with bodily fluids’ like HIV.

It has a 21 day latency period.

Tests for it even in symptomatic patients are frequently negative early on. In spite of the fact that they’re already symptomatic spreaders.

No one will quarantine anyone. Business and commerce is too important. That usually works out for societies.

Until it doesn’t.

The early lack of important action by governments in West Africa was due to this. They didn’t want the western corporations that they depend on for their livelihood to evacuate workers and cause problems with commerce. So important quarantine and travel restrictions weren’t put in place. Now the region is a nightmare zone.

We’ll see what happens with us when it comes here.

And Brantly wasn’t an ‘expert’ on Ebola. He was a GP family doctor who was drafted to care for patients in a clinic near where his normal work was done. He was, though, a western trained doctor that was fully aware of barrier methods and universal precautions. In spite of this he contracted the disease.

If you look at the graph of infections versus date near the bottom on this page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_outbreak

You’ll see that the field clinics (mainly MSF) had this thing pretty much under control in early May. New cases were close to zero or zero per day.

Then, in mid/late May ‘something’ changed. And appears to have changed in all affected regions. What that ‘something’ is is anyone’s guess. My guess is mosquito vector transmission. That time corresponds to roughly the period of time from onset of rainy season to hatching of first generation of mosquitos. Add in a week to 10 days for symptom onset and you have roughly the time when the infection numbers go exponential.

[tet68]

let the “imagination” roam free...

It’s funny how even reality can get ahead of imagination.
Best case vs. worst case, usually comes somewhere in between.
We have a month or so to see what happens.

Maybe this time we’ll get lucky, or maybe not.

[ansel12]

The woman didn’t die of Ebola, yet you want to fight to keep the rumor/conspiracy alive that she did, that is an agenda, not a fact.

It is consistent with your constant spinning everything into the worse case, the darkest tones, to cause panic and hysteria, an agenda.

[Black Agnes]

It isn’t conspiracy to know that tests aren’t perfect and NO one will know for sure for 3 more weeks.

[ansel12]

And Brantly wasn’t an ‘expert’ on Ebola. He was a GP family doctor who was drafted to care for patients in a clinic near where his normal work was done.

Your agenda shows again, the doctor wasn't "drafted", he volunteered, and became became the director of the Ebola clinic at his mission hospital in Monrovia.

[Black Agnes]

He was an MD in the region. There are less than 200 doctors in the entire country from what I’ve read. Probably many fewer than that that are actually Western trained.

He of course felt obligated to help. That’s what he was there for.

But don’t think he was sent there as some expert to manage an ebola outbreak. He wasn’t an expert and he helped because he was in the area.

He was one of few westerners in that area at that time. If you had been in in the bush country in Africa, ever, you would understand why he became ‘director’ of that clinic. He’s likely one of only a handful of Western trained physicians in several hundred miles in any direction. Of course he would be the director. Who else in that area would be qualified to manage him? That ‘clinic’ was likely a few stucco buildings and associated tents and outbuildings. Fewer than 5 MD’s there total from what I’ve read.

The idea that he was some sort of infectious disease expert is wrong however. He was there to deliver babies, set bones, give vaccinations and any other of the umpteen healthcare needs in that area. He, being western trained, knew all about barrier methods and universal precautions. In spite of his training he still became infected. This is troubling.

I’m not sure why you think I have an agenda. You’re the one spreading misinformation.

I’ve actually lived in Africa and been treated at a bush clinic by Missionary MD’s. The clinic isn’t some hut or overhang in the jungle. But it’s not a world class facility either. More like a small town medical clinic with a GP or two and a few nurses like what’s found in any rural community in the US. If you need a bone set you are probably in luck. If you need a level 1 trauma center, you’re screwed. If you just need a hanger of Ringer’s solution and a bedpan you’re OK. If you need cancer treatment you’re doomed. Etc.

[ansel12]

Hardly anyone here believes your claim that the doctor was “drafted” to be an Ebola doctor.

I would say that most here would also consider the working doctor and director of the Ebola clinic in Monrovia, who as a patient is now involved with our own Ebola clinic here as it’s first patient, is an expert.

As usual you always turn to the most dark and negative spin possible, he isn’t an expert and he was only “drafted”.