Moscow may force European airlines to fly around Russia

UK Guardian ^ | 8-5-2014 | Rueters

[Kozak]

Southern Asia can be reached without flying over Russia.
northern Asia can also be reached avoiding Russia over the pole.
Most goods from Asia go by sea. I bet Russia’s shitty economy buckles first.

[Truth29]

"why would anyone go to russia now? it’s becoming more and more totalitarian/emperor-ish here everyday. no need."

Good point and Obama is working so diligently to destroy the US on his own.

[wolf78]

For European airlines, this could crush their most profitable routes, add billions in costs, and give their Asian competitors an advantage lasting years. And it would be very visible to Europe's wealthiest and most politically active.

Political posturing. Not likely to happen. Yes, it would cost BA and Lufthansa countless millions to use different routes. But it would hurt Aeroflot as well, as they a.) get money from European carriers for using Russian aerospace and b.) are even more dependent on using European airspace (which would be closed to them in retaliation) for their business model.

Right now this is an information war, where the KGB supplies the talking points in order to sow discord in the west. It's a game of "Look what I COULD do!". I'm not saying that Putin would never be stupid enough to actually go through with it. But it would only happen if Russia decides on a completely isolationist course, basically cementing its second-rate status as a technological and economical power and hurting itself in the long run.

Until it gets cold....

Putins promise of "stability" to the russian people requires a constant flow of money to keep the feudal system of Putinism afloat. Plus the added tens of billions for infrastructure if Russia wants to keep its Sudetenland. Where else should it come from? China? Not for some years. Tax revenue? With the current laughable state of the Russian economy? Right now, a cold winter in Europe equals a hot one in Moscow. Russo-Maidan anyone?

[Drango]

Only a few US Passenger flights use Russian airspace

True to some extent but most flights to Asia and India fly over Russia. Tokyo, Singapore, Delhi etc would be impacted.

[Uncle Chip]

The article says this:

Russian aviation consultant Boris Ryabok, estimating European airlines would lose around $100-200 million per year, less than the cost to Russia of the lost fees.

And that's spread over about 20 different carriers but the $300 million that Russia would lose is abosrbed by one -- Russia's one company.

So once again you show that you are a wet behind the ears Putin boot polisher out of touch with economic reality.

[tcrlaf]

Go to FR 24 NOW...

Just like the North Atlantic Track, the Polar routes have peak and off peak times. Right now, the remainder of the west-bound flights are nearly done.

In about 3 hours, the east-bound NAT flights will begin.

It is evening in Europe now, so the Asia-bound flights will just now be in the air.

[tcrlaf]

Again looking at FR24, the east-bound surge from Europe to Asia is just beginning.
Note how many DHL aircraft are over northern Russia, right now, for example.

Finnair’s Asia trips are just now leaving. The number of Euro aircraft heading east will grow in the next couple of hours.

On the other side, the day’s trans-polar flights to China haven’t begun yet, and last night’s east coast to china flights are just now nearing the Russia Mongolia border.

[trisham]

"Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes,
they just don't know where to look."

~Ronald Reagan

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[DTA]

Ruskies can also close Norther Sea Route. Without Russian nuclear icebreakers NSR can be used only 2 months a year.

When USA imposed economic sanctions on Japanese Empire, Japan had no other option but to use military to fight back.

Ruskies can prick back, without use of military.

Generally, in this tug of war it is both EU and Russia losing.

Although this situation is beneficiary to U.S. interests, U.S. is not in good shape to take an advantage out of it.

So it is Lose-Lose-Not win proposition. When no one is winning, it is extemely dangerous because sooner or later the tables will be turned.