[tcrlaf]

For the U.S., this isn't that big of a deal. Only a few US Passenger flights use Russian airspace. Several cargo flights do, but not a huge amount in the larger scheme of things.

For European airlines, this could crush their most profitable routes, add billions in costs, and give their Asian competitors an advantage lasting years. And it would be very visible to Europe's wealthiest and most politically active.

Besides the sanctions-canceled leases forcing Dobrolyot's closure, three other Russian Holiday carries are being forced to close for the same reason. Aerofolt losing $20-25 mil a month in over-flight fees if this goes through is just a drop in the bucket.

Between this, and rumors of closing or limiting access to the "Silk Road" to and from Asia, it seems Russia's counter-sanctions will be designed to put major pressure on US allies, and not us directly.

If Iran plays along with it (they just signed a $20 Billion dollar oil contract yesterday), this could really hurt. We'll see.

[Tailgunner Joe]

Europeans might want to avoid flying near Russia anyway unless they want to be murdered like the hundreds of innocent people on the Malaysian airliner slaughtered by Russian terrorists.

[MadMax, the Grinning Reaper]

A boycott of tourist flights to Russia might hurt.

[skeeter]

Or they’ll what - shoot them down?

[kabar]

Two thirds of Russia’s export revenue comes from oil and gas sold primarily to the EU. Europe has some leverage as well. If Russia wants to raise the stakes, they could be shooting themselves in the foot.

[BobL]

Looks like Russia has options too. LOL!

[Golden throne]

Hey I’m curious how far do these trade retaliations go you think. I mean economic warfare never lead to a shooting war right? Well I no sanctions but escalatory trade, financial and business sanctions are supposed to last until the opponent cracks.

So who do you think will break before it becomes to costly?

[Uncle Chip]

So what???

Russia gets fly-over fees for every flight over their territory and this will hit Russia where it hurts them the most — in the pocketbook.

[beebuster2000]

we shouldn’t start tit for tat unless we have big tits

[Tau Food]

I think this is a great idea. And, I think that every other country in the world should bar Russian planes from their airspace.

But, the truth is that Putin is not intentionally turning his country into another North Korea. He's just incompetent.

[McGruff]

Comment #3 Removed by Moderator

LOL wonder who that was.

[Graewoulf]

When Mrs. Bill Clinton was Obama’s Secretary of Statements, (SOS) she had her RE-SET Button.

Now “Swift Boat” Kerry has her job and all he has are diplomatic tweets from SOS Spokeswoman Jen Psaki.

Without Women and their high tech gadgets, this Russian overflight problem would never get solved!

[free_life]

Not safe flying over Russia or any place Russians have invaded. Yes so close the airspace Putie and then Europe, Asia and North America can close airspace to all Ruskie planes ...squeeze the bloody bastards till they bleed to death.

[Kozak]

Close US, UK NATO airspace to any Russian flights.
And stop all of the above nation carriers to Russia.

[OldGuard1]

This is simply not true. Go to flightradar24.com and compare how many flights you see going over Siberia (in particular, Eastern Siberia (which some articles say is to be the focus of the proposed ban)), versus elsewhere. Almost nobody flies there, passenger or cargo.

Setting aside the issue of the fact that blocking it would be cutting off their nose to spite their face (overflight fees), Europe would very likely retaliate by blocking Russian access to their airspaces. And a large majority of Russian international flights *do* go over European airspace. The impact would be grossly disproportionally negative to Russia.

The key aspect in all of this is proportionality. Europe and the US begin with a huge advantage over Russia, in that their combined economies are 16 times larger than Russia’s. So if they cut off X dollars worth of trade with Russia, if that makes up Y percent of the GDP of the US + Europe, it’s Y times 16 percent of the Russian GDP, if all else is equal.

That’s where multipliers come in. You want to make cuts on things that will be hard for your opponent to replace, making them have to pay high prices on purchased goods / sell their goods at lower prices. If they can find replacement sellers / buyers at all.

Russia’s “energy weapon” is often talked about like that because, while oil and gas are commodities, the quantity being talked about is so large that it’ll take major, expensive efforts on the part of the EU to displace consumption and increase imports to make up for it. But the issue is, Russia doesn’t want to use it. It’s the cornerstone of their economy. Can you imagine willingly writing off half of your economy? Yeah, you’ll hurt Europe’s GDP by 5-10% if you totally cut it off, but you’ll send yourself into third-world status. So while of course they want to threaten it, they really, really don’t want to do it.

All other issues, however, are weapons that work in Europe’s favor. With a few exceptions, Russia sells commodities and imports (apart from food) specialty goods. Russia threatened to stop buying apples from Poland? Big deal, apples are fungible. If Russia would threaten to stop selling diamonds to Belgium? Big deal, diamonds are fungible. There will be costs, of course, but they don’t have any serious multipliers. However, Russia buys tons and tons of not just consumer goods, but industrial equipment - their domestic production is way undersized and outdated. If you have, say, a refinery built to take a particular custom-built German catalytic unit and it breaks, and the German company that designed and built it is no longer allowed to replace it for you? Yeah, good luck with that one. Restrictions on high-tech industrial goods can have massive multipliers. Russia only has one relevant export field of this nature (rocket engines), and it’s way smaller than their imports that are affected suchly. And their multiplier on rocket engine exports has been greatly weakened by the rise of OSC and SpaceX’s private launchers anyway.

[wolf78]

For European airlines, this could crush their most profitable routes, add billions in costs, and give their Asian competitors an advantage lasting years. And it would be very visible to Europe's wealthiest and most politically active.

Political posturing. Not likely to happen. Yes, it would cost BA and Lufthansa countless millions to use different routes. But it would hurt Aeroflot as well, as they a.) get money from European carriers for using Russian aerospace and b.) are even more dependent on using European airspace (which would be closed to them in retaliation) for their business model.

Right now this is an information war, where the KGB supplies the talking points in order to sow discord in the west. It's a game of "Look what I COULD do!". I'm not saying that Putin would never be stupid enough to actually go through with it. But it would only happen if Russia decides on a completely isolationist course, basically cementing its second-rate status as a technological and economical power and hurting itself in the long run.

Until it gets cold....

Putins promise of "stability" to the russian people requires a constant flow of money to keep the feudal system of Putinism afloat. Plus the added tens of billions for infrastructure if Russia wants to keep its Sudetenland. Where else should it come from? China? Not for some years. Tax revenue? With the current laughable state of the Russian economy? Right now, a cold winter in Europe equals a hot one in Moscow. Russo-Maidan anyone?

[Drango]

Only a few US Passenger flights use Russian airspace

True to some extent but most flights to Asia and India fly over Russia. Tokyo, Singapore, Delhi etc would be impacted.

[trisham]

"Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes,
they just don't know where to look."

~Ronald Reagan

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[DTA]

Ruskies can also close Norther Sea Route. Without Russian nuclear icebreakers NSR can be used only 2 months a year.

When USA imposed economic sanctions on Japanese Empire, Japan had no other option but to use military to fight back.

Ruskies can prick back, without use of military.

Generally, in this tug of war it is both EU and Russia losing.

Although this situation is beneficiary to U.S. interests, U.S. is not in good shape to take an advantage out of it.

So it is Lose-Lose-Not win proposition. When no one is winning, it is extemely dangerous because sooner or later the tables will be turned.