Posted on 08/05/2014 11:28:37 PM PDT by nickcarraway
What everyone gets wrong about Beijing's bullying in the South China Sea.
As China jousts with Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and other neighbors over contested maritime territory, the conventional wisdom is that energy concerns are a motivating force. China claims virtually the entire South China Sea -- a claim disputed by its neighbors (most notably Vietnam and the Philippines) -- and there have been an increasing number of conflicts in recent years over who has the right to exploit the energy resources under the seabed in disputed waters. China's introduction of a deep-water drilling rig into contested waters around the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea -- an unprecedented effort by China to unilaterally move forward with energy development in these areas -- has reinforced the notion that energy is at the core of these disputes.
In reality, however, the pursuit of oil and gas in the East and South China seas is simply one manifestation of the more fundamental conflict over sovereignty in the region. China has a multipronged strategy to assert its dominance over the disputed maritime areas, including enhancing its military capability, research to show the historic basis for China's claims, and diplomacy to ensure that the Southeast Asian claimants do not unite against China. A tactic that China has been utilizing more recently has been to act as if China is the unquestioned sovereign in the contested areas, by doing what a country does in its own territory -- exploring for energy and building infrastructure. This is clear in the Aug. 4 comments by Yi Xianliang, deputy head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Boundary and Ocean Affairs departments regarding building activities in the South China Sea: "The Spratly Islands are China's intrinsic territory, and what China does or doesn't do is up to the Chinese government."
(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...
China has a population time bomb that is about to explode as the population ages rapidly. They are running out of young people to work. The 1 Child policy has caused this
China has a medical time bomb that is about cough up a lung as 1/2 of the worlds smokers are Chinese citizens. They don’t have the medical infrastructure to deal with the coming lung cancer
China has a debt bomb that is about to explode as the provinces have fueled economic growth with deficit spending and real estate bubbles. When it breaks it is gonna be ugly
China has a corruption bomb that that doesn’t so much explode but works like a stink bomb to keep people and investors away
China has an ideological bomb that is getting bigger by the day as more and more of its population realize how evil their government is.
China has about another 10, maybe 20 years before one or several of these bombs bring the PRC down
It is really possible that the Philippines and Vietnam can simply wait the Chinese out
Bingo.
China’s One Child policy, by allowing more women into the work force, created huge short term economic expansion. The long term cost will be as you noted.
Meanwhile China is traveling the world to monopolize suppply of rare earth metals.
And they’ve lent us, US, trillions of dollars. Wait until they find out we either can’t or won’t pay it back and if we do, it will be with hopelessly inflated dollars.
That sounds like the USA.
China has a pollution bomb that is fowling the air and the water at a rapid pace.
China has a water bomb. They are running out of it everywhere.
The leadership will pull a General Galtieri (Argentina's former dictator) and wag the dog...basically distract the public with Evil Vietnam or Evil Phillippines or whatever, and launch (what they will calculate to be) a controllable little war.
Problem is, China is so big, they that freak everyone out when they do anything at all. They may not be prepared to see a united world react to their little agression, and the whole thing might mushroom up.
Economic upheaval is baked into this cake. Severe economic upheaval inevitably results in war, revolution, dictatorship or all three. China is already spoiling for a fight with all of its neighbors, they could kick it off at any moment.
A possibly important side note to this is the colonization of Africa by China. It will be interesting to see where this goes. Once these bombs explode on China, will China outsource it’s manufacturing base to Africa so that Africa becomes China’s China? Or will they import workers from Africa so that Africa will become China’s Africa?
Its really about these nations wanting to expand claims over the water by expanding their claims on the shelf and sea bed. The presence of a island or group of rocks that can be claimed extends out the shelf which can then claimed as an Exclusive Economic Zone or EEZ. As the article points out, the EEZ covers or applies to more than just oil & gas.
Mexico is still searching for the mythical island in the Gulf of Mexico that appeared on an ancient map drawn by an early European explorer. The island probably doesn't exist but if Mexico could find that island it would extend out their shelf and EEZ.
All this is a result of the UN Law of the Sea Treaty and there are overlapping claims in the China Seas, the Arctic, Antarctic, and other places.
Because the US has never ratified UNCLOS, we are at a disadvantage in dealing with China in this area as we are at a disadvantage in dealing with Russia, Canada, and Denmark in the Arctic. And the Antarctic with Britain, Chile, and Argentina.
But I guess we are in good company. The only coastal nations that haven't ratified the treaty are the US, Turkey, Syria, Israel, an Iran.
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