Except, even if he’s not trying to engineer something, he’s too intelligent to likely lose his investment.
I think most successful people are smart.
In my younger days, living in LA, I went to Vegas fairly often to gamble.
My technique was streak betting. I would bet at a blackjack table until I hit a winning streak, and then move to the crap table for intense betting until I thought my winning streak was waning.
When that happened, or I thought is was going to happen, I would begin hedging my bets by betting on the don't come line. Betting against myself.
It doesn't make any difference who is holding the dice, if the roller makes several passes, the odds go up that the roller will crap out on the next roll, so it is smart or intelligent to bet against the roller.
But it doesn't always work. If the roller makes 4-5 straight passes, then the odds say he won't make the next, so you bet against him. But, if the roller goes on to make 12 straight passes, and you are betting against him on each roll, you lose your ass, and have to go back to the black jack table, until you hit another winning streak.
And if that happens multiple times, you may lose your entire gambling stake, and have to go home, with your tail between you legs.