Posted on 09/02/2014 3:53:23 PM PDT by Din Maker
There is a new chart-topper in Roll Call’s latest monthly ranking of the 10 most vulnerable senators.
Montana’s appointed Sen. John Walsh was by far the most endangered incumbent in the chamber at the time of the previous installment in early August, but his decision last month to not seek a full term opened the top slot to a couple other worthy contenders.
Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., is still in a perilous political position, but Louisiana Sen. Mary L. Landrieu has leapfrogged him on the list to become the Senate’s most vulnerable incumbent.
The Democrat is pushing hard to eclipse 50 percent on Nov. 4, the day of Louisiana’s jungle primary and possibly Landrieu’s best opportunity for re-election. She will undoubtedly get close. But if Landrieu doesn’t win a majority of the vote against a few GOP challengers, she will likely face Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-La., in the Dec. 6 runoff.
If that happens, all bets are off, and Landrieu’s viability may depend on which party prevailed on Election Day.
With the elections just two months away, Democratic incumbents overall have run strong-enough campaigns to ensure the fight for the Senate majority remains a tossup — despite a playing field tilted heavily in the GOP’s direction.
Republicans, who need a net gain of six seats to take control of the chamber, are expected to get halfway there by picking up the open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Its open-seat opportunities don’t stop there, but the GOP will likely need to defeat at least two sitting senators to win the majority.
They have several to choose from:
1. Mary L. Landrieu, D-La. No incumbent faces a more complicated path to re-election than Landrieu, thanks to the state’s unique voting process and calendar. With a challenging national climate and a strong GOP challenger in Rep. Bill Cassidy, Republicans may finally defeat the senator who has won some tough races before.
2. Mark Pryor, D-Ark. Pryor is surprising people in both parties and is in far better shape at this point than some expected a year ago. But he remains a top target of national Republicans, who believe Rep. Tom Cotton will ultimately win over the GOP voters who have supported Pryor in the past.
3. Mark Begich, D-Alaska The Democrat running arguably the best campaign also happens to be in possibly the most challenging state for the party. Begich and his Democratic backers have been hammering Republican Dan Sullivan for months, long before he finally emerged with the nomination Aug. 19.
4. Kay Hagan, D-N.C. Hagan is a top target for Republicans, but circumstances have been good to her. Republican Thom Tillis, the state House speaker, had to put his candidacy on the back burner for the past several months when the legislature’s “short session” ended up not so short. He only became a full-time candidate last week, when the House finally wrapped up.
5. Mark Udall, D-Colo. Udall has a strong opponent in Rep. Cory Gardner, and Colorado is a solidly purple state that could go either way. Democrats are hoping their 2010 playbook, which got Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet elected in a Republican wave year, will be as successful the second time around.
6. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. If rankings went by polling alone, McConnell might be higher on this list. He faces a legitimate challenge in Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, a rock star fundraiser who makes the party optimistic. Grimes needs to top the 47 percent McConnell’s previous opponent received in 2008, but that’s not easy in a midterm cycle with an unpopular Democratic president.
7. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. Shaheen is well-liked and remains the clear favorite, but a single poll in mid-August showing a 2-point race caused an uproar of speculation. It’s likely not that close, but Republicans hope former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown will begin to close the gap after the Sept. 9 primary.
8. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore. With a solid lead in the polls and large financial advantage, Merkley doesn’t appear to be in much danger. But Republican Monica Wehby is getting some much-needed help from the Koch brothers on the airwaves and Merkley’s poll numbers, while strong, don’t match Al Franken’s, pushing the Oregon senator up one spot on this list.
9. Al Franken, D-Minn. Franken is a strong fundraiser in a solidly blue state. There’s a path for Republicans to potentially make this race competitive, but so far, GOP nominee Mike McFadden hasn’t made it happen.
10. Mark Warner, D-Va. It would take a Republican wave election to oust Warner, a popular former governor with a massive cash advantage over his Republican opponent Ed Gillespie. He joins this list largely for lack of another option.
As Rush pointed out, has anyone noticed there are no polls being done? Or at least very few. I have seen only ones from KS, KY (McBummell now up by 4), MN, and the Scott Brown one the media tried to hide showing him within 2. I can only conclude that many of these numbers look bad for the dems, so they are not being conducted yet or the numbers not being released.
Begich may have just stepped in it.
(Wishful thinking, yeah, I know.)
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Mitch is the only GOP on the list.
Ditch the entire 10 and we will be just fine.
Begich may have just stepped in it.
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Big-time.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3199794/posts
No disrespect intended—But if the GOP did capture the Senate, and held the House, what would change from the way things are today?
The democrats are dumping massive amounts of money into the Michigan senate race. Kinda funny for a race they’re sure they’ll win.
They just bought some $4.5 million in air time.
Yep, by not showing poll results when the dims steal their elections it won’t look as fishy as usual.
I would just love it if the GOP re-took the Senate, and somehow did so without Lindsey Graham.
(Wishful thinking, yeah, I know.)
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Not necessarily “wishful thinking”. There is a wealthy, well-known Indy who has entered the SC race and he’s giving Lindsey fits. He prolly won’t win, but he could throw the election to the Dem, Hutto.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3190719/posts
It would. The 14 Gangsters would rear their ugly heads again.
They only seem to show up when the GOP has a senate majority.
Having both houses would limit lame duck "flexibility", at least to some extent.
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Sadly, here in Arizona neither putz is on the ballot.
That entire list — including Mitch — warms my heart. Here’s hoping every single one of them loses.
Hagan in NC is about as dumb as a fu cking fence post.
Warner in VA is 0-Tard’s lapdog.
How the good people of either state could put those jokes in the Senate to start with is beyond me.
Sadly, VA is my home state, and I spend alot of time down in NC, so I’m familiar with both...
GOP favored legislation wouldn't die on the vine in the Senate and would actually get to Obama's desk. He would actually have to either sign it or veto it, but he couldn't continue to argue that we have a "do nothing congress." Remember, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid got rid of the rules preventing a minorty from stalling votes in the Senate. We could use those rules against the Democrats in 2015 and 2016. We could inflict lots of damage on Democrats by passing popular legislation and having Obama veto much of it.
I think you are right. Bruce barley is an idiot. Joni Ernst is awesome!
I think the most important thing at stake will be the ability to block Pres. Ebola’s SCOTUS nominations.
No disrespect intended—But if the GOP did capture the Senate, and held the House, what would change from the way things are today?
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Every single Senate Comittee would be chaired by a Republican. Ted Cruz might head one of those committees. No more Harry Reid sitting on House passed measures.
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