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To: zeestephen

That would be based on registered voters, and as anything to do with government a dubious stat.

There’s a song out by a young lady that has lyrics “...just because I said it don’t mean I meant it....”


66 posted on 09/09/2014 9:27:31 AM PDT by rockinqsranch ((Dems, Libs, Socialists, call 'em what you will. They ALL have fairies livin' in their trees.))
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To: rockinqsranch

It’s my statistic, actually, and it’s based on eligible voters, not on registered voters.

After the 2012 election, which Romney lost by 3.9%, I decided to calculate what the popular vote would have been if every eligible voter in the USA had voted.

I used the racial, gender, and age statistics collected by NEP, which is the exit pollster used by all major USA news media.

I used the eligibility stats calculated by Pew Research.

And I used the 2012 population stats from the US Census Bureau.

My result?

Romney lost by 4.1%.

In my personal opinion, that number is low, and is probably 5% or more.

Why?

Historically, white Conservatives turn out at a higher rate than any other ethnic or political group.

To me, that indicates that a 100% turn out would bring more Left wing voters to the polls, and fewer Conservatives.


70 posted on 09/09/2014 1:40:31 PM PDT by zeestephen
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