I'm not an epidemiologist, although I have been applying computers professionally to medicine and medical data for 30 years. So these comments, while not tremendously authoritative, are not crazy, either. Take them for what you think they're worth.
If you take the number of cases on August 6 and raise it to the 1.003924 power, you get exactly the number of cases on September 6. Using that exponent, and projecting out to the future, we would have:
| Date | Cases | Deaths |
|---|---|---|
| 9/13/14 | 5,402 | 3,628 |
| 10/6/14 | 11,492 | 7,718 |
| 11/6/14 | 31,792 | 21,352 |
| 12/6/14 | 85,106 | 57,158 |
| 1/6/15 | 235,432 | 158,119 |
| 2/6/15 | 651,282 | 437,409 |
| 3/6/15 | 1,632,704 | 1,096,545 |
| 4/6/15 | 4,516,594 | 3,033,402 |
| 5/6/15 | 12,090,930 | 8,120,423 |
| 6/6/15 | 33,447,469 | 22,463,747 |
| 7/6/15 | 89,538,923 | 60,135,485 |
| 8/6/15 | 247,693,969 | 166,354,435 |
| 9/6/15 | 685,202,594 | 460,190,818 |
Calculating the last 60 days, the exponent is 1.0038683.
Calclulating the last 90 days, the exponent is 1.00393.
So it seems like the exponent, over the last 90 days, has remained fairly constant, somewhere around 1.0039. Do your own projections.
If you calculate from the first day in the chart, the exponent is 1.006721, giving drastically higher numbers.
I would guess, though, that at some point there will be an epidemiological equivalent to the "law of diminishing returns", and the exponent will likely fall somewhat. How much? I don't know.
Your numbers are sobering...though I expect extreme measures to be undertaken in more the developed world to blunt the spread...even if your numbers are off by 90 per cent it would still be a horrible plague. If the disease gets loose in this country, you know where the disease will concentrate and then threaten to spread out...communities that practice sexual perversions and IV drug abuses...any place where the sharing of body fluids is as common as breathing.
Sex workers would be shunned. Many folks will self isolate and worry about lost jobs later on. It will safer to be in monogamous relationships. Media will proclaim that a new moral piety, enforced by plague realities, is being practiced and (temporarily at least for the sake of the emergency) endorsed by groups traditionally opposed to church doctrinal teachings.
If the disease gets loose in this country, folks will look at the politicians who were in charge of policies that may have facilitated this spread into our nation. Taxes and liberal policies are one thing, but a populace faced with death may not care so much about the perceived political injustices certain groups had complained about when Aids became a public health head-ache. The demand will be for severe quarantines and severe sanctioning of the behaviors that facilitate Ebola’s spread!
460 million deaths in the Dark Ages due to the black plague would have been an extinction level event for humans....today that would be nearly 5 percent of the worlds population. If confined mostly to Africa, then some whole countries would have been wiped out. Some NWO advocates and Pete Singer types will be jubilant with the population...”corrections”