Aren’t these numbers for the entire US...is it possible that the increase in oil cars is regionally higher in Midwest?
This type of stuff usually happens when we have a bumper crop...but we’re in drought. Strange to me that grain cars are growing - must be something driving that, other than merely having more grain.
The biggest growing category is ‘other’...I wonder what that is.
I do know that the railroads, particularly the BNSF, have been spending their time, attention, and money on government mandates lately...and probably less on expanding infrastructure. Namely, “positive train control” which sets up a network of radio towers that can remotely stop a train. Its a huge deal.
I also think a 5% jump in oil cars will ‘gum up the works’ more than a 5% jump in grain cars, because I don’t believe they can be ‘humped’ - meaning it takes longer to build trains that include oil cars.
BNSF is also identifying choke points in their system. They actually have a lot of room to expand, by stacking two shipping containers on top of each other. They already do this, but many of their routes have tunnels that prevent it - so they are making the tunnels bigger, to allow more double stacks.
And, in Texas, short lines are coming back.
I would expect in near certain, not just a possibility.
This type of stuff usually happens when we have a bumper crop...but we’re in drought. Strange to me that grain cars are growing - must be something driving that
Expectations for a bumper harvest have caused prices of corn, the nation's biggest crop, to fall 15% this year to near four-year lows, after plunging 40% last year. Soybeans, the No. 2 U.S. crop, also are near four-year lows.
Abundant rainfall and cooler temperatures in the Midwest paved the way for higher yields both this year and last. Earlier in August, the USDA estimated the nation's corn crop would reach 14.03 billion bushels in 2014, surpassing last year's record of 13.93 billion. Government forecasters also estimated the soybean crop would be by far the largest in history.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-farm-incomes-forecast-to-fall-1409072250
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Big crops don't necessarily get bigger. But this year's corn and soybean crops likely are.
USDA reported record yields and production for both crops in its first survey of farmers and their fields Aug. 12. The agency updates its estimate Sept. 11, and is widely expected to raise its forecasts. That prospect sent futures crashing to new contract lows.
http://farmfutures.com/story-big-crops-may-even-bigger-29-37662
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From Ohio to Nebraska, thousands of field inspections this week during the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour show corn output in the U.S., the world’s top producer, will be 0.4 percent above the government’s estimate. Months of timely rains and mild weather created ideal growing conditions, leaving ears with more kernels than normal on 10-foot (3-meter) corn stalks and more seed pods on dark, green soy plants.
Prospects of bumper harvests sent Chicago futures tumbling into bear markets last month, two years after a drought eroded output and sparked the highest prices ever.
I also think a 5% jump in oil cars will ‘gum up the works’ more than a 5% jump in grain cars, because I don’t believe they can be ‘humped’ - meaning it takes longer to build trains that include oil cars.
There is has been 51,000 more oil cars and 112,000 more grain cars per a late summer report. The oil cars almost always are gathered in one spot and delivered in one spot, taking less time and effort to complete the runs.
They actually have a lot of room to expand, by stacking two shipping containers on top of each other.
Judging from the traffic reports, this is not much of a container shipping issue.