[SAJ]

Hack -- Definite dittoes on what ConDude said.

My Q for you is: postulate a date for completion of the North section of Keystone, any date you like. Then, approx. how long (ASSUMING the RRs cooperate, perhaps a dangerous assumption) will it take for grain shipments to normalise and for coal shipments (ASSUMING the coal industry is still in business, of course) also to normalise?

The question may be unanswerable as asked, naturally, but if you'd care to have a go, please do.

FReegards!

[thackney]

My Q for you is: postulate a date for completion of the North section of Keystone, any date you like.

None of the Keystone XL is going to be built without approval of the border crossing. Other portions of the Keystone pipeline system are already in operation.

Then, approx. how long (ASSUMING the RRs cooperate, perhaps a dangerous assumption) will it take for grain shipments to normalise and for coal shipments (ASSUMING the coal industry is still in business, of course) also to normalise?

I don't see them much related. Nearly all of the Keystone XL is for Alberta production. It is not going to carry a significant portion of output from the Bakken.

[thackney]

Keep in mind, there are other pipeline being built that specifically target getting more oil out of the Bakken area. In the past year, the oil moved by pipeline out of North Dakota increased more than the oil moved by rail. Rail is still the majority, but more pipelines are going in.

https://ndpipelines.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/ndpa-monthly-update-august-15-2014.pdf

http://ndpipelines.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/ndpa-monthly-update-august-15-20131.pdf

[thackney]

In the past year, the oil moved by pipeline out of North Dakota increased more than the oil moved by rail.

- - - -

I messed that one up. I used the latest month, not the past year. While that was true for the latest month, it was not true for 2012 versus 2013, or expectation for 2014.

It looks like the rate of change is greater for pipelines and will likely catch up and eventually exceed, it hasn’t happened yet.