In Liberia, ebola cases are increasing by 3-10% per day. 3% gives an Re of 1.4. 10% gives an Re greater than 3. Doubling number of cases every 8-24 days in Monrovia. Death rate with MSF (Doctors without Frontiers) treatment, as good as it gets, is 50-60%. Liberia had a total of 47 doctors for 4.4 million people. At least three of those doctors are dead, including the top African virologist, from Monrovia, educated at Harvard.
Best case: 85,000 dead, 140,000 infected, 99.7% of cases in Africa. Intermediate case: it spreads to India, Philippines, with isolated cases in Europe, China, US. Worst case: impossible to calculate because WW3 will intervene.
Risks: Mutation, weaponizing, other deliberate spreading of the disease, fear taking out food, water and utility supplies, rioting, dead bodies eaten by animals to give new species vectors. Prediction: Monrovia population drops by half or more by Christmas, 2014, with 300,000+ infected and 200,000+ dead. Rinse and repeat for any city where it breaks containment. Bright spots: contained in Senegal, first round contained in Nigeria. 100% contact tracing required.