Posted on 10/08/2014 2:50:59 PM PDT by dangus
I am NOT an official for the WHO. I am reporting on data being provided by the WHO, not on statements by the WHO. The WHO may have knowledge I do not have that prevent them from reaching the inferences I am reaching.
Based on the data presented in regularly published WHO reports, there were only 90 new Ebola infections in Liberia over the last four days, ending Oct 5. That's an average of 23 per day. There were recently an average of 79 new infections in Liberia per day. This continues a downward trend over the last few reports, which come out every 2 to 4 days.
Nigeria has no reported new cases in over a month. They previously have had 22 cases.
Sierra Leone is reporting 352 more cases, but 275 of them are old cases which had not previously been reported as ebola. So the downward trend in Sierra Leone may well be continuing, from what I can tell of these reports.
The bad news comes from Guinea, where the epidemic seemed to have been spreading more slowly than in Sierra Leone and Liberia throughout August and September. In August, Guinea had a similar number of total cases as Sierra Leone and Liberia (486 vs. 468 and 646), but by Sept 25, had only a fraction as many cases (1,103 vs. 3,564 and 2,120). However, the caseload growth is accelerating in Guinea. The 25 new cases per day over the last 4 days (99 total) are the 2nd most new cases per day between any 2 WHO reports.
Any Keith Richards comments would be very tasteless.
“... no reported new cases ...”
Seems like a very key phrase .... “no reported”.
The reason for the cresting in Liberia may be that the health infrastructure there has so completely collapsed that reporting is impossible.
I think a lot of those who would do the reporting are the ones who already have it.
I don’t buy it. Way to many cases of people being turned away from hospitals. Too many reports of people seeking care and dying at home.
>> Seems like a very key phrase .... “no reported”. <<
If you’re suggesting that the WHO is failing to report, that would require the World Health Organization to know there was an outbreak in Nigeria, have their medical crews on the ground, but decide they don’t want any financial assistance in dealing with the outbreak. Not plausible.
On the other hand, it is quite possible that there may be a case of two somewhere where the victim is not seeking help.
That could be. Was the pregnant 19 year old ever counted? Assuming that Duncan told the truth when he signed the paperwork at the airport, then it would mean they aren’t telling people about Ebola cases.
My understanding is that infrastructure has crashed in those countries, so the ability to report anything may have been compromised. I recommend “adopting a wait and see attitude”. :-|
There’s really no way of knowing how many dead there are. Truly no way.
All-puns-all-the-time chajin agrees.
If I read this accurately, this means there are two directions in which the disease can spread. One would be to go inland, to Burkina Faso and Mali; the other to go east to Ivory Coast. It could do both, of course.
If I were POTUS and I thought it would do any good, I would send our people to Burkina Faso, and convince the French to send their people to Ivory Coast, and perhaps keep it from spreading further over land. Needless to say I would also be blocking air and sea transport, but it wouldn't have taken any intelligence to have done that 2-3 weeks ago.
Yes, it’s important to note that we can only track people seeking care or who are uncovered. In fact, Sierra Leone’s figures jumped as the WHO added hundreds of old cases. But the best available data seems to be heading in the right direction in three of the four affected countries.
Maybe that is because they are all on their way here.
After Katrina hit Louisiana, a reporter stated they hadn’t received any calls from Bogalusa reporting storm damage so they might not have had much damage. The truth of the matter was the phone, including cell phones, were all out and they had heavy damage.
Take a lack of reports with a grain of salt.
I think you have to add in all the new Liberia infections that have hopped a plane to the US.
Umm... I said halted in Nigeria, only. In fact, I said exploding in Guinea. You presented no data from Nigeria. I also am talking about just the past four days. You present nothing with a time scale less than 21 days. You seem to be arguing right past me.
>> Take a lack of reports with a grain of salt. <<
Yes, I think the entire two paragraphs I wrote were a mound of salt.
Just had a weird thought ... What if Ebola or it’s equivalent is what wiped out the Dinosaurs 65 Million years ago.
TT
Just a thought
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