Keep in mind that I calculated the 1 in 4500 probability on the basis of all cases that have not died, from the beginning of the outbreak in December. Since that number includes everyone who recovered, as well as the currently ill, the probability is a lot lower than what I calculated.
I would really like to see a current, rather than cumulative, case count. Then I could do much better calculations.
I think if I did that calculation on the number of people who were exposed, but not yet showing symptoms—those who are able to travel, in other words—estimated on the weekly case count—the number would be at least ten-fold less than my rough calculation.
We’ve had imported cases of hemorrhagic fevers before, and not one has ever led to a secondary case.
but those numbers also don’t include the un-reported cases either.. which is many fold higher than the reported cases..
unless you estimated the unreported cases in your calculation..