Posted on 10/12/2014 6:36:56 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Is it a race after all?
After trailing by as many as seven points in every major poll since June, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes now holds a slim lead over Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, according to a Bluegrass Poll survey released last week.
Grimes, Kentucky’s secretary of state, leads the five-term incumbent 46 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, according to the poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for Louisville’s Courier-Journal and three other state media outlets. Libertarian candidate David Patterson had 3 percent support in the poll, while 7 percent said they were undecided.
The poll follows an internal survey conducted a week earlier that also showed Grimes with a 2-point edge over the six-term incumbent, according to campaign sources.
‘Outlier’?
McConnell’s campaign, though, wasn’t impressed.
“After fourteen straight public polls all showing Sen. McConnell with a clear lead, this Bluegrass Poll is obviously an outlier,” McConnell campaign spokeswoman Allison Moore said in a statement. “We’re very comfortable with where this race stands and are confident Sen. McConnell will be re-elected in November.”
Of course, one would expect such a response from the Republican’s camp.
But Geoffrey Skelley, an independent political analyst with the University of Virginia, agrees that the poll doesn’t necessarily represent a meaningful shift in the dynamics of the race.
“It seems likely this is an outlier,” he said. “As always, one poll means little. This one will need confirmation from other surveys before we consider altering out outlook on the race.”
Grassroots Strategy Paying Off?
For now, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the U.Va. forecast model for which Skelley serves as associate editor, has McConnell winning the race by a small but definitive margin.
But Grimes campaign manager Jonathan Hurst said in a statement that the poll “reflects the overwhelming grassroots enthusiasm Alison and our campaign see every day across the commonwealth.”
Democrats also point to the poll’s finding that 58 percent of registered voters believe McConnell should be replaced, a figure consistent with what other surveys have found recently.
Even more alarming for McConnell is the percentage of Republicans and conservatives who believe he’s been in Washington too long — 27 and 33 percent, respectively.
‘Grain Of Salt’
Still, University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss said the poll’s results — and especially its 6-point swing from a month ago, when it had McConnell up by four points — won’t likely have Republicans changing their game plan anytime soon.
“I would take these results with a grain of salt, given that they deviate from everything we’ve seen recently,” Voss told the Courier-Journal.
Indeed, a poll released on Wednesday showed McConnell back on top by 4 points, a result more in line with polls of the last several months.
The McConnell campaign’s strategy has focused on tying Grimes to an unpopular President Obama, suggesting she would be little more than a rubber stamp for the president and his policies.
That tactic, which Republicans nationwide have employed this year as Obama’s favorability ratings stay mired in the mid to upper 30s, has proved effective in other states. The GOP needs to flip six seats in the Senate to take control of the chamber — and make McConnell majority leader in the process — and most analysts believe the party will reach that mark if current trends continue through Election Day.
Still, the Kentucky race is among the closest in the nation in this mid-term election year, and will likely go down to the wire.
Trouble On Tape
Grimes has insisted she isn’t an Obama clone and will stand up to the president when his policies go against Kentuckians’ best interests.
But the Democrat and her campaign haven’t helped themselves in convincing voters of her sincerity. The Grimes’ camp was stung last week when a secretly recorded video was released showing local Democratic officials questioning Grimes’ commitment to coal. The tape was produced by conservative activist James O’Keefe.
On the tape, the videographer asks Democratic officials what Grimes’ intentions are regarding coal.
“If we can get her elected do you think she is going to do the right thing and she’s gonna try to wipe out that coal industry and go for better resources?” says the videographer, who was secretly documenting the encounter.
“I absolutely think she is,” responds Fayette County Democratic Party operative Gina Bess.
“She has to say that,” added Juanita Rodriguez of the Warren County Democratic Party. “But you know what? Politics is a game. You do what you have to do to get [elected]. … It’s a lying game unfortunately.”
McConnell’s campaign pounced once the video was released, calling the comments by Democrats “shocking” and clear evidence that Grimes won’t go to bat for Kentucky coal.
“The level of deception that Alison Grimes and her campaign engages in to appear pro-coal despite obvious opposition is both disturbing and dangerous,” Moore said.
Grimes Responds
The Grimes camp fired back, calling O’Keefe a “discredited con artist,” and pointing out that no one on the tape works for Grimes or her campaign.
“The individuals in the video aren’t on our staff,” said Grimes’ spokeswoman Charly Norton. “The United Mine Workers of America endorsed Alison because of her unwavering commitment to Kentucky coal miners. The fact that McConnell’s campaign relies on a convicted criminal with a known history of absurd and deceptive projects is telling as McConnell attempts to make this race about anything but the loss of 25,000 coal jobs on his watch.”
O’Keefe, who has gained a reputation for secretly recording Democrats and liberals making embarrassing and contradictory comments, pleaded guilty in 2010 to a charge of entering federal property under false pretenses. The charge stemmed from an incident in which he and two other men secretly tried to record Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu’s New Orleans office.
Whether the tape costs Grimes voters remains to be seen, of course, but Skelley, the U.Va. analyst, isn’t sure it will make a difference one way or the other. He believes the environment that could lead to a GOP takeover of the Senate will push McConnell across the finish line first.
“Kentucky is a Republican state at the federal level,” he said . “[McConnell] may not be popular, but [he’s] a Republican in an environment favorable to his party in a state that doesn’t like the president.”
“Win by losing? Flat out, dumb, stupid ass logic.”
Yes, it’s much better to “Lose by Winning”, right? We have to be honest and accept that if we re-elect McConnell - someone who could become Senate Majority Leader We get someone who is hostile to conservatives, has stood idly by while government grew by leaps and bounds over Republican and Democrat administrations. We will get someone who is a friend of the unacceptable Status Quo.
If McConnell gets elected we dont “Win by Winning”, it is better than a “Win by Losing” but if you are intellectually honest, it’s not much of a win in terms of changing the direction of the country and addressing our most egregious governmental transgressions.
You also have to admit that if McConnell wins, it’s a vote for not electing conservatives.
I don’t live in Kentucky, so what I think matters not - but I think re-electing McConnell is a “Lose by Winning” proposition that is only slightly better than “Win by Losing” over the long term.
He’s never been Majority Leader so he can’t “return” to the position.
“YOU are the reason why we never have any REAL BALLS in Congress!!!!”
Yes, damn us for wanting to keep an Obamabot *itch who thinks it’s a woman’s right to crush the skull of her 8 month old baby and vacuum it’s brains out from winning in Kentucky, we suck.
Okay.
Who do you want to win? McConnell or Grimes?
Just wanted to be clear:
HMS Surprise is fine with 6 years of Grimes.
Got it.
How does that help Conservatives and the country?
“Who do you want to win? McConnell or Grimes?”
You mean do I want to “Lose by Winning” or “Win by Losing”
If Grimes wins, it’s a positive because we can stick a fork in a RINO = “Win by Losing”
IF McConnell wins - he might be Senate Majority leader = “Lose by Winning”
If it meant controlling the Senate, then I guess I’d have to say I hope the ol’ doughy fossil wins.
The only way we “Win by Winning” is if he keels over immediately after being sworn in for his new term.
It should be easier to answer your question, I know.
“How does that help Conservatives and the country?”
Now you are being unreasonable. That’s not the right question.
What you really mean is “Conservatives and the country are screwed either way, but we are slightly less (and only slightly less) screwed if McConnell wins”
You can’t ask your question with a straight face when referring to Mitch McConnell, can you?
If McConnell loses the message will be clear: if you are the majority leader and you don’t lead in a conservative fashion, you will lose your job. Cantor anyone?
Agree. If you want someone voting for Obama 95% of the time, then go ahead and let Grimes win. Not a huge McConnell fan, but the alternative would be foolish.
Too be replaced by a Democrat Governor.
Thanks for confirming you are fine with Grimes.
I think you said McConnell.
Amazing. I ask a question with 2 answers and someone who demands such purity from a politician gives a meandering and less than convicted answer.
The irony is rich.
“Too be replaced by a Democrat Governor.”
How about a massive stroke and a lingering semi-vegetative existence, where he refuses to resign his office but can’t fulfill any duties?
The point is the ONLY reason to elect McConnell is to avoid electing a Democrat. There is a smelly “win/lose” mix either way.
To say we ‘MUST’ elect McConnell without acknowledging that he’s the worst candidate for conservatives, except for the other one is a mistake.
I would rather go after McConnell and try to persuade him to govern more like a conservative than be stuck with a hopeless, scumbag, liberal like Grimes.
“Amazing. I ask a question with 2 answers and someone who demands such purity from a politician gives a meandering and less than convicted answer.”
You issued a false dichotomy and are indignant when your view of the world is not acknowledged.
Your indignance stems not from any “political purity” test on my part, it’s from your failure to see the obvious - that McConnell is, based on his past performance, hostile to conservatives, friendly towards big government, and apt to keep the status quo.
Ironically - the answer to your false dichotomy isn’t as easy as you want it to be - and you are the one who demands purity and blind obedience.
Now, Mitch, isn’t it past your bedtime?
“I would rather go after McConnell and try to persuade him to govern more like a conservative than be stuck with a hopeless, scumbag, liberal like Grimes.”
Well, you’ve got a hell of a job ahead of you there. McConnell is just as big a scumbag - and you want to enthusiastically re-elect him and make him Majority Leader?
He’ll tell you and every other conservative “go F yourself, I’m here for 6 years, a duly elected Senator from the State of Kentucky” and will proceed to undermine every conservative principle and candidate that he can - because that’s what he does.
Thanks for confirming that you think McConnell is swell.
The problem is, Grimes in the Senate is a much bigger Obama win.
Actually, given the rate at which the repercussions of Obama’s inability to govern are starting to show up, there may be a good chance to elect a more strongly Conservative Senate in 2016. In that case, I think McConnell can be pushed out of the Majority Leader position.
Otherwise, the main reason to vote for McConnell now is that taken overall, his voting record is not flaming liberal, and, we probably need ol’ Mitch to win, to win the Senate and thereby somewhat limit the horrific damage occurring in the Judiciary Branch.
I respectfully disagree. If Grimes wins,it will be just another junior Democrat Senator.
McConnell has too much influence as Minority Leader of the RINOs and will have even more if the Republicans win the Senate.
Grimes’ one reliably liberal vote will never come close to the incalculable treachery of such a traitor as McConnell. Voting for a RINO is worse than voting for a Democrat. Vote only for conservative GOP candidates.
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