Posted on 10/14/2014 1:47:51 PM PDT by Second Amendment First
Three weeks out from an election that could give Republicans an historic majority, House Democrats are resorting to the painful strategy of retreat.
Faced with a perilous midterm environment and a sudden gush of Republican cash, Democrats are shifting cash from blue-chip recruits to prop up teetering incumbents. The goal is to minimize losses and keep Republicans from their most dominant hold on the House since Harry Truman’s presidency — potentially expelling Democrats from the speaker’s chair for years to come.
In recent days, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has scrapped spending on behalf of two prominent candidates in districts the party had high hopes of snatching from the GOP: Colorado Democrat Andrew Romanoff, a former state House speaker once seen as the party’s best 2014 prospect; and Virginia Democrat John Foust, who is trying to defeat Republican Barbara Comstock, a hard-nosed former operative who played a key role in the investigations of President Bill Clinton in the 1990s.
The money that had been planned in those districts, where airing TV ads is costly, is being shifted to shore up incumbents and keep once-safe seats in the party’s column. Conservative outside groups in recent days have invested millions of dollars in races, erasing what had been a sizable Democratic financial advantage.
Democratic strategists say they’re trying to determine how much damage they might incur on election night. On Monday, the DCCC announced a $600,000 investment to save a suddenly endangered northeastern Iowa district that President Barack Obama won by 14 percentage points. It was an unmistakable sign of how much the political terrain has shifted against Democrats since the 2012 election.
Other similar moves could be on the way.
“Making these decisions is the hardest part of this job, but the amount of outside Republican money raining down on our incumbents means that we need to fine-tune our reservations,” New York Rep. Steve Israel, the DCCC chairman, wrote in an email. “It hurts to scale back any ad buy, but especially when you have strong candidates like Foust and Romanoff who are polling well, have momentum and could win their races.”
Democrats are now almost exclusively playing defense. Of the 28 districts seen as most seriously in contention, all but seven are held by Democrats. Republicans are virtually assured to expand their current 17-seat majority; strategists have pegged GOP gains at six to eight seats. But if Republicans can reach their goal of netting 11 seats, they will have their largest majority since 1949.
The good news for Democrats is that, at least for now, there’s no indication that Republicans are poised for a double-digit gain. Of the 18 Democratic incumbents in the most challenging races, pollsters from both parties say, there isn’t one who appears certain to lose. While 2014 is shaping up to be a good year for Republicans, they add, it does not yet resemble the wave-like environment of 1994 and 2010 for Republicans, or 2006 and 2008 for Democrats.
Republicans are hopeful that a late push from deep-pocked conservative groups could yield bigger gains. Over the final three weeks of the campaign, GOP-aligned outside organizations have reserved more than $22 million worth of commercial air time in competitive districts across the county, nearly double the investment from third-party Democratic groups.
During the final stretch of the election, few Democrats will be targeted with more cash from GOP-friendly outfits than Rep. Ami Bera, a California Democrat who was first elected two years ago. Conservative groups will spend nearly $3 million against Bera, far outpacing their liberal counterparts.
In that race and others, conservative groups are coordinating their efforts to avoid overlap. On Tuesday, American Action Network began airing a TV commercial attacking Bera for his past support of Obamacare. That ad will run through Oct. 20, and the next day Congressional Leadership Fund, a group with close ties to House Speaker John Boehner, will begin a commercial buy in the district that will go on for a week. Finally, the baton will be passed to the Karl Rove-founded American Crossroads, which will air ads for the final week leading up to Election Day.
(Also on POLITICO: Clinton jabs media's modern mindset)
The outside help has helped House Republicans close a financial gap that has dogged them all year. The DCCC out-raised its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee, by $33 million. But now the DCCC finds itself spread thin and forced to compensate for the conservative group barrage. The money once meant for Foust, for example, has been reallocated to Bera.
“Their donors’ willingness to spend whatever it takes is forcing us to play defense and makes it very difficult for us to take advantage of all the offensive opportunities that exist out there in the country,” said Ali Lapp, executive director of House Majority PAC, a prominent Democratic organization that invests in House races.
Democrats say they are short-changed in part because they spent heavily early in hopes of defining Republican candidates before the heart of the political season, when the TV airwaves would become crowded with commercials. Some Republicans argue that was a mistake, giving them an opportunity to dominate during the final three weeks of the election when many voters are just starting to pay attention.
In a midterm election where the fight for the Senate has taken the spotlight, strategists with the conservative groups say it suddenly makes sense to pour money into House races. Senate contests are already saturated with TV ads, so the money is likely to have a bigger impact on a House race.
At the very least, the conservative strategists say, they’ve caught Democrats off guard and given Republicans momentum in the homestretch.
On Tuesday, Brian Walsh, the president of American Action Network and a prominent GOP strategist, posted an article to his Facebook page highlighted his group’s latest TV purchase. He concluded with a quote from Ulysses Grant.
“In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten, then he who continues the attack wins.”
I just want Harry Reid’s wimpy ass ousted!!!
President Obama will be just five minutes away from the first school in the nation named in his honor, but he can’t step away from his deep-pocketed pals at a Democratic Party fundraiser on Long Island to visit its students, parents at the school say. Students at the primarily Hispanic and black elementary school have been sending letters begging for an appearance by the nation’s first black president ever since they campaigned in 2008 to have the name of the school changed from Ludlum Elementary School to Barack Obama Elementary School.
I’m not wasting my time investing in RINO’s and the GOPe (95 percent of elected Republicans) who won’t change what Obama and the courts are shoving down our throats because they want it, too.
The way election cycles work and with the economy stinking, the IS and Ebola messes, the average voter will run to the other side of the sinking ship (GOP) in November without any financial or voting support from me.
Doesn’t matter. The GOPe won’t do anything to reverse the decline.
Get back to me the day after the Election.
Until then, yeah, right.
The democratic party now is a cancer on America.
Not one on that side will stand up and stop the extremism. Not ONE!
There were many times in my life I would have been absolutely thrilled with this outcome.
Today it’s a ho hum moment. I have no idea how it will turn out.
the Republicans don’t have a plan.
Boehner hasn’t come up with a plan. McConnell doesn’t have a plan.
The RNC doesn’t have a plan.
The GOPe doesn’t have a plan.
It’s downright scarey what these idiots will do with their new-found majority.
If we had a McCain or a Romney in there, it would scare me to death. With Obama in there the instinct to object to him may or may not save us. I just don’t know.
Let’s see how back they can muff in in the next Congress.
Will they still have the majority in two years?
Will Cruz get a fighting chance?
Good luck Mr. Cruz.
House and Senate Republicans, please change direction. Please stand up for what is right.
A lot of the races they’re giving up on are against RINOs unfortunately.
As a conservative I don’t consider that good news. Yes I expected, and would be happy to see a few RINOs lose lessening their power in the House.
Earlier it seemed that conservatives could take control of the House Republican Caucus but now it looks like we will increase our strength just slightly- not enough to make a big difference.
Better than a stick in the eye...
>>>I just want Harry Reid’s wimpy ass ousted!!!<<<
Sorry, there are some here that will be starting a Harry Reid Victory Thread if the Senate doesn’t flip Republican and those lousy RINO’s are punished by Electing Democrats.
Don’t doubt me. Not debating the issue, facts are facts.
Doesn’t matter anyway, the Republic is dead.
Long live Direct Democracy Comrades!
The House is the most conservative branch of government. Anything that strengthens it is better.
They could have 2/3 of both houses, and they would not pass anything over Obama’s head.
I guarantee it.
Legalizing the Keystone pipeline is going to be passed. That's plan enough for me.
The DIMocRATs are fortunate they live in a still civilized country. For their many, ongoing crimes these degenerates ALL should be in prison or exiled or????
The French Existentialist Philpsopher Jean-Paul Sartre once asked “If you were neck deep in a barrel of sh*t and someone was getting ready to throw a handful of snot at your head, would you duck?”.
The GOPe has put conservatives in such a barrel.
GREAT tagline!
Who is going to sign the bill?
You see, they still can’t veto Obola.
The danger is when they decide they want to go along with Leftist tripe.
We know they want amnesty real bad. I think I know someone who will sign that too.
I can see November from my house.
Have to love it.
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